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Topic Summary

Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 27, 2026, 06:31:06 pm »

Probably excessive optimism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI7Qb6RWmV8

Woke comments:

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Chinese maps now show the entire Bolshoy Ussuriysky / Heixiazi Island as solely Chinese, despite the 2008 agreement. Drawing on Putin’s own precedent in Ukraine—“correcting” historical injustices—China could frame such action as legitimate restitution.  Most of the world would likely shrug, condemn Russia far less harshly than it would China over Taiwan, and do little beyond sanctions that Moscow already endures. Russia, militarily exhausted and economically strained, could do nothing.  Rather than trigger economic catastrophe by attacking Taiwan and its highly vulnerable chip factories, Beijing could advance long-standing “Century of Humiliation” claims against Russia.  China expands dramatically, gains strategic depth and critical resources, satisfies nationalist pride at home, and scores a major geopolitical victory—all without the catastrophic costs and backlash.

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Even better for Chinese, the Russians are committing a variety of suicide types over the past few years. Russia’s biggest trading partner is now China. The Chinese supply at a premium due to sanctions and the Russians “export” their manufacturing. Then the Chinese buy oil, gas and raw materials at a discount, due to sanctions. Then, Russia slaughters its own citizens, emptying the East of potential threats to Chinese immigration.

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It is much safer for China to wait until massive protests erupt in Russia's core, Putin gets deposed, there's a period of unrest, etc.

Because in that context Russia is extremely unlikely to do anything back. A temporary leader from some transitional council won't be self assured enough to use nukes or escalate massively.

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They would be very stupid not to take full advantage of this opportunity to consolidate their position in these area!!!

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If I was China, I'd go to the Urals.
Posted by: Murkadin
« on: August 22, 2026, 11:06:22 pm »

Multiple media outlets putting out similar pieces:


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World War 3 or global poly-crisis? Russia, Iran, Ukraine and the expanding conflict | DW News
Russia's war against Ukraine and the US-Iran conflict are becoming increasingly intertwined. From Iranian drones in Ukraine and Ukrainian support for Gulf states, to North Korea’s role, rising oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and shifting global alliances - the lines between separate conflicts are beginning to blur. Is this the path toward World War 3, or are we already living through a new kind of globalized conflict?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7D5UccFe7M
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 22, 2026, 06:01:02 pm »

This would be nice (except the part about Taiwan obviously):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VWkfON4Ido
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 19, 2026, 03:55:41 am »

I am not that optimistic, but we should still hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKFQNYkq8ww

Woke comments:

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Russia doesn't need a reason to bully its neighbors, it just comes naturally.

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Down with moscovian Imperialism !!!!

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Japan has created an amphibious Brigade - wonder where they could use that when the time is right?

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Japanese could easily ramp up production of plausibly deniable drones and cause a bit of chaos for the Russian Pacific Fleet

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Japan never signed an official surrender to Russia at the end of WW2, they are technically still at war!... Japan should finish it once and for all!

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japan will have their territory and more if they want it

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japan can take half o russia right now if they choose to

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I also wonder about China's historical (currently formally renounced) claim to its territory of Outer Manchuria, including Vladivostok, stolen by the Tsar in 1860.

Having Japan distract or weaken the Russian Pacific fleet might give China a pretext to establish some bases there ... for "mutual protection", you understand.

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Japan needs to get together with China and they both need to take their stolen territories from Russia at the same time.

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It's obvious that Japan should announce that they will support China when it makes its claim north to the Arctic west to the Kazakhstan border in return for Sakhalin Island and the Kuril's.
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 15, 2026, 07:34:44 pm »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpcRlAE8C9Y

So now hopefully Denmark is willing to fight the US over Greenland, and it escalates until the US nukes Denmark.
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 13, 2026, 02:25:38 am »

"under "Emotion and Passion" is were tribalism can creep in?"

I would say tribalism can also creep into "Reason and Policy". It is not difficult to figure out that tribalism will outcompete everything except perhaps folkism:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/human-evolution/ethnotribalism-the-computer-simulation/

"Nations also go to war for non-tribal reasons often, do they not?"

Not only nations. For example, the American Civil War:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/colonial-era/abraham-lincoln/msg9922/#msg9922

Also, even sincere neocons are pro-war for non-tribal reasons (albeit reasons we disagree with). This is why neocons get attacked from the right by paleocons, the latter who want war to only ever be for tribal reasons, and why I have always insisted that paleocons have the potential to be far more dangerous than neocons, a point that most leftists have only recently grasped.
Posted by: Murkadin
« on: August 13, 2026, 01:52:56 am »

"The Clausewitzian Trinity, introduced by Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War, describes war as a dynamic and paradoxical force composed of three core tendencies:
primordial violence and passion, the play of chance and probability, and subordination to rational political policy. The Three Elements and Social Organs Clausewitz mapped these three tendencies to corresponding groups within a society:
Emotion and Passion: Primordial violence, hatred, and enmity belonging mainly to the people.
Chance and Probability: The creative, uncertain, and chaotic environment managed primarily by the military commander and the army.
Reason and Policy: The rational subordination of war as an instrument of the government.
Why the Trinity Matters Dynamic Balance: War remains unstable if any single element—the government’s goal, the army's capability, or the people's will—collapses or falls out of alignment.
Nature vs. Character: While the underlying nature of this trinity remains permanent, the character of how war is fought changes based on technology and history."

I suspect, if the trinity described above is true, that under "Emotion and Passion" is were tribalism can creep in?

I disagree with Oliver Marcus Malloy when he states that "tribalism leads to all wars", often perhaps, but not always. Nations also go to war for non-tribal reasons often, do they not? Germany went to war before for non-tribal reasons and passions, and so has Iran most recently?
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: August 10, 2026, 09:07:49 pm »

Greenland back on?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC5vl-GIvVQ

 :)
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: June 19, 2026, 03:08:33 am »

By now, China's best possible move is obvious to the whole world:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBAnfeopVyA

Woke comments:

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俄罗斯屠杀了30万远东中国人

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Manchuria

Russia was literally one of the European powers and part of the 8-nation alliance. Russian troops invaded Manchuria and participated in the siege of Beijing.

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The territory annexed by Russia is the last piece of the concessions given during the Century of Humiliation, and larger than all the other concessions combined then x100.

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Russia should hand over the stolen lands

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I think China could also try to incentivize chinese migration into eastern Russia in order to change its demographics and try to influence the region even further.

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There are many border towns in Russia with a sizable Chinese population.

It would be an exquisite irony if some time in the future, China decides to take those Russian territories with the excuses of "being historical lands" and "protecting the Chinese population"

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Honestly eastern Siberia is probably easier to manage from China than from Russia.

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If Russia continue to weaken over their fight at Ukraine, i can only wonder at what point Russia gets weakened enough that China thinks that it's more realistic to invade Russia first instead of Taiwan

Accurately pessimistic comment:

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The Chinese establishment is accustomed to maintaining friendly relations with Russia, and our Han nationalism is even more pro-Russian for many reasons you have no idea about.
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: January 23, 2026, 09:28:04 pm »

With Greenland apparently not in play after all, we are back to our only hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ6Gnq0ksMA

Woke comments:

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In addition to Outer Manchuria, you also have Outer Mongolia a.k.a. Mongolia

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A mate of mine suggested this half a year ago, with another reason added: water. China needs huge amounts of fresh water for their data plants, and Siberia and Manchuria have it.

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Considering the fact that all these territories were ceded to Russia under the same unequal treaties signed with other Western powers, such as the U.K. and France, and considering the fact that the People's Republic of China demanded the return of tiny Hong Kong and Macau (really minuscule compared to the aforementioned territorities) from the U.K. and Portugal, one cannot but detect a sense of irony and double standard here. When pointing out this reality to some Chinese nationalists who would use all sorts of mental acrobatics to defend their motherland's hypocrisy, you can literally FEEL their cognitive dissonance.

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We haven't seen China's army in combat but I'm pretty sure they're stronger than Russia. Plus Russia is massive so they gotta divert troops from Ukraine all the way to Siberia

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NATO isn't going to initiate an attack on China - it's a defensive alliance primarily built to counter Russia. NATO certainly isn't coming to Russia's defense if China attacks them.

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Definitely a better idea than Taiwan.

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as long as Japan gets Sakhalin and the kurils. I support this.
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: January 08, 2026, 05:18:54 pm »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELtZnnIC6IE

Let's hope both sides keep their word: Trump about invading Greenland militarily, and the EU about stopping him militarily. But I am not optimistic yet, as we all know about the TACO tendency, and there is also a chance that the EU leaders are bluffing to achieve TACO, and will back down themselves if Trump does not.

The US military becoming preoccupied with such a war would actually reduce the likelihood of the US invading elsewhere (Colombia, Mexico, etc.) and therefore should be supported by those worried about US aggression. Many leftists seem to forget this (or they might be False Leftists who subconsciously care more about "white" lives).
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: December 28, 2025, 07:44:08 pm »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57us0xQ-pUQ

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Chinese invasion of Mongolia is likely to 
2:18
push Chinese-Russian relations into outward  hostility

This is what China should want, as in so doing it would gain many new allies among countries currently hostile to Russia.

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and simultaneously double China's 
2:23
border with Russia

This is thinking about it backwards. Instead, we should think that it would double Russia's border with China. Who should be more worried about a longer border: Russia or China?

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at a time when China would much rather focus its military attention into the East and South China

2:32
seas.

This is precisely the mistake that Dugin wants China to make: https://trueleft.createaforum.com/true-left-vs-false-left/war/msg29540/#msg29540

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And with no Russian troops there, Mongolia  is effectively a buffer state between China and 
2:37
Russia.

Again, this is thinking about it backwards. Instead, we should think that, with no Chinese troops there, Mongolia is effectively a buffer state between Russia and China. It is Russia that benefits more from such a buffer state (which is precisely why Russia set it up in the first place: https://trueleft.createaforum.com/colonial-era/russia-the-last-colonial-empire/msg15079/#msg15079 ) So why not remove this benefit from Russia?

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there are still
3:36
very few reasons for China to invade Mongolia. It  wouldn't gain access to any mineral wealth that 
3:41
doesn't already dominate through trade

What about the mineral wealth in Russia that it could far more easily acquire later by invading Mongolia now?

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it would have to rule over 3 million people who definitely don't want to be ruled by China.

Which is far fewer than the equivalent number in Taiwan. Therefore we should minimally agree that China invading Mongolia instead of Taiwan would be an immense improvement. (To say nothing about the racial gulf between Taiwanese and Mongolians such that eliminating the latter's bloodlines would only improve racial quality whereas far more care is required in dealing with the former's bloodlines.)

Related:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/ancient-world/re-turanian-diffusion/msg31420/#msg31420

Turanist comments:

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Disagree. Shallow research. Mongolia have own long history and culture, language that define as unique to any other country. We been here as nomads, hunters for 5000 years with China and Russia. All this times we invade china and russia some point also lost recognition some point. But we never lost our uniq identity as Mongols. You will suprise that Mongols have independent happy rich country that 3 million people with enuogh recouce to survive next 5000 years. Hope you learn better undestanding of geography and world. Stop being stupid and ignorant. Disrespectful to Mongolian people.

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Take it back? You better be careful when you talk about Mongols. We invented Russia and China. That is why we can manage our selfs😂😂😂 you will never understand

This is why it would be a good thing for your bloodlines to be eliminated.
Posted by: PotatoChip
« on: November 23, 2025, 02:55:21 pm »

Is World War III Already Starting? A Geostrategic Breakdown | Prof. Jiang Xueqin
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This is an exclusive highlight from Professor Jiang Xueqin’s public lecture on global geo-strategy.
In this segment, he breaks down the rising tensions between Israel, Iran, and the United States, and uses game-theory to explain how major powers make strategic decisions in moments of global crisis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsFgN4yByus

Comment:

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climate catastrophe might be the wild card that changes all this though.

Climate change would most likely accelerate this outcome, and the global south would probably still pay the heaviest price.

Perhaps it's time to take all the information from this forum and start putting it time capsules?  ???
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: November 09, 2025, 06:24:37 am »

False Leftist stupidity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYt9letzkJ8

China's best move is to offer a folkist deal to India whereby India, without needing to risk any Indian troops, receives a significant fraction of however much of Siberia's resources China manages to acquire. If India then were to sabotage China's invasion of Siberia, it would be sabotaging its own only chance (since India has no way to invade Siberia from its own territory) to access these resources. It should not be difficult for India to conclude that it gains far less from sabotaging China than by simply waiting to receive the free resources.

Woke comments:

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I think you VASTLY overestimate the threat posed by India to China in the event of a Sino-Russian War.

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I don't see how India would invade China. For India to do an invasion of China, they'd to go through the Himalaya's and just don't see that happening. There is territorial disputes in the area, but both China and India knows the cost of going to war with one another would be devastating to both.

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Both nations have strict no first use policies regarding their nukes and operating military aircraft over the Himalayas has the same difficulties to overcome as civilian airliners. Thise can be overcome, but only in small scale operations. Any war between India and China will be of limited scale and result in no significant exchange of territory, only loss of life.

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China invading Russia to get their own oil in Siberia....... Timing? Now? Russia can not win on 1 front, so most certainly Russia can not win on 2 fronts. Wait untill Ukraine is victorious? Russian men of fighting age will have been exterminated by then, but Russia is putting everything in building a military industrial complex at this moment , and that capacity would ba available when they stop fighting Ukraine. Seems to me this would be the ideal time for China if they want to take the Siberian oil.

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The Nazis called it "liebensraum".... What will the chinese call it??

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China will benefit if it takes areas like Lake Baikal and leaves Taiwan alone.

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Taiwan which has preserved the culture while continuing to develop.

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Taiwans main value to China, is a technological and economic powerhouse, that will never pose any serious threat. Instead, the cultural bonds, if carefully nurtured, would make an excellent ally in practice.

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fingers crossed for a Mandate of Heaven to overthrow Xi
Posted by: 90sRetroFan
« on: November 07, 2025, 01:53:50 am »

Balla also looks like what we would expect: