Author Topic: Climate refugees  (Read 1742 times)

90sRetroFan

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Climate refugees
« on: July 30, 2020, 03:19:42 am »
OLD CONTENT

I told you it was only a matter of time before this was going to happen:

www.vice.com/en_in/article/mbmaqy/india-continues-to-be-ravaged-by-floods-and-drought-at-the-same-time

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As various reports show India approaching ‘Day Zero’ (the day when a place’s taps dry out and people have to stand in line to collect a daily quota of water), a top Indian expert has warned that Indians may soon become “water refugees” who’ll migrate to water-rich European countries. Rajendra Singh, a Magsaysay-winning conservationist and environmentalist, and popularly known as the “Waterman of India”, made this statement at the recently-concluded Stockholm International Water Institute.
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“In India, such migration is taking place from villages to cities. However, the current water crisis may lead to such climatic migration in the future to other countries,” he told The Press Trust of India. In fact, in India, a March 2019 report by the World Resources Institute has warned that the climate change impact will be considerable because of its large population—at 1.37 billion as of September 18—depending heavily on environment-sensitive sectors such as agriculture. “These factors make adaptation critical,” says the report.

This will also occur elsewhere.

If we do not ruthlessly eliminate all the people who want to keep borders closed, the refugee death toll we have seen up until now will be nothing compared to what we will witness in the future.

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https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/united-nations-human-rights-commissioner-criticises-australias-asylum-seeker-policies/ar-AAIuPhc

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www.rt.com/usa/471887-climate-change-pentagon-interventions/
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Behind the dull title of “Implications of climate change for the US Army” lies a 52-page report by a team of scientists outlining apocalyptic scenarios: conflicts driven by hundreds of millions of people displaced by rising sea levels; collapse of the US power grid and transportation; and the inability of the Army itself to provide water for its troops, to name but a few.
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The authors see climate-related disasters displacing hundreds of millions of people around the world – giving Bangladesh as one example vulnerable to rising sea levels, with the refugees then triggering conflict in the already unstable and nuclear-armed Indian Subcontinent.

Such crises may require US Army intervention, from disaster response by the Army Corps of Engineers to military operations. However, the report warns, if the water shortages get worse – as they are predicted to – the Army is “precipitously close to mission failure concerning hydration of the force in a contested arid environment.” Operations in places like Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan over the past 27 years will no longer be possible simply due to inability to secure enough water for the troops.

This is why the best way is generally not to try to help at the disaster-hit countries, but to simply let all refugees into destination countries as they arrive by themselves.

As for people in prospective disaster countries, I strongly suggest not waiting for the disaster to hit, but to start moving out as soon as you have the means to do so. The more people emigrate early, the less chaotic the final emigration rush can be.

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finance.yahoo.com/news/far-more-people-risk-rising-160000590.html

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The research by Climate Central www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z, a U.S.-based non-profit climate science and news organisation, underscored the scale of the upheaval projected to unfold as global warming increasingly threatens some of the world's most densely-populated regions.

The study found that 300 million people are now living on land that is likely to flood at least once a year on average by mid-century without adequate sea defences, even if governments manage to make sharp cuts in emissions.

Earlier estimates had put that figure at about 80 million. China, Bangladesh, India and Vietnam account for the bulk of the at-risk population.
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The risks were underlined last month when the U.N.-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a landmark report on oceans that said sea levels could rise by one metre (3.3 ft) by 2100 -- ten times the rate in the 20th century -- if carbon emissions keep climbing.

Even if governments manage some curbs on emissions, the new study, published in Nature Communications, said that about 237 million people spread across China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are likely to face annual flooding by mid-century, unless they establish adequate sea defences.

By 2100, if emissions continue unchecked, and ice sheets rapidly disintegrate, then land where 250 million people now live in those six countries will fall below the waterline at high tide -- putting almost five times more people at risk than assessments based on previous elevation data had found.

Migration must be made as easy as possible for as many people as possible as soon as possible. The worst scenario would be if the greatest need to migrate from disaster-hit countries coincides in timing with policies most hostile to immigrants in destination countries. With Salvini etc. around, this scenario is highly possible.

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Nydia Velasquez means well:

velazquez.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/vel-zquez-introduces-historic-bill-protect-environmental-migrants

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Washington, DC – Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez (D-NY) has introduced H.R. 4732, the Climate Displaced Person’s Act of 2019, first-of-its-kind legislation aimed at addressing the growing effect of climate change on human migration.

Importantly, the bill would create formal protections for climate-displaced persons (CDPs). CDPs are individuals who have been forcibly displaced by climate change or climate-induced disruptions, such as sea-level rise, glacial outburst floods, desertification or fires. According to studies by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), there could be as many as 200 million CDPs by 2050 globally. In fact, these predictions could easily be exceeded with the intensification of political instability and armed conflict resulting from climate drivers.

In response, Velázquez's legislation would create a humanitarian program separate from the U.S. refugee admissions program. The new program would admit a minimum of 50,000 CDPs, beginning with Fiscal Year 2020, allowing CDPs to access resettlement opportunities. The President would be granted authority to further promote resilience among communities facing the impacts of climate change as well as directed to collect and maintain data on displacement caused by climate change.

“Despite this Administration’s efforts to strip the world’s most vulnerable populations of refuge, America will continue to stand tall as a safe haven for immigrants,” said Velázquez. “This legislation will not only reaffirm our nation’s longstanding role as a home to those fleeing conflict and disasters, but it will also update it to reflect changes to our world brought on by a changing climate.”

50000/year is orders of magnitude too low, however. Going by the above estimate of 300 million climate refugees, it would take 6000 years to admit them all! Even if the US accepts only 25% of all climate refugees (as US GDP is ~25% of world GDP), that would take 1500 years, which is ludicrous. Do people these days even bother to number-crunch anymore?

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Rightists are mad that leftists are bringing up climate refugees, instead of opting to address more "popular" environmental issues.

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I had once heard that the US Pentagon had contemplated worst case scenarios were the US would have to use tactical nuclear weapons on climate refugees. Cannot remember where I heard that though, nor have I found any information on it since?

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Julian Castro on board:

www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/4/20849369/julian-castro-climate-refugee

Democratic presidential candidate Julián Castro’s climate plan, released Tuesday, calls for the US to create a new category of refugees to
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welcome people displaced by the warming planet.

The US only accepts refugees who have been targeted based on their race, religion, nationality, politics or affiliation with certain social groups. As climate change threatens everything from crop production to coastal cities, tens of millions of migrants are expected to be pushed out of areas that will no longer be habitable in the coming decades.

The World Bank estimates more than 140 million migrants will be displaced as a result of climate change by 2050. Castro’s plan is meant to address that growing crisis. But other experts worry it will come at a cost for people who are fleeing persecution in their home countries.

Migrants displaced by climate change have no formal rights in the US and internationally. While 164 countries signed a United Nations agreement in 2018 to work together to resettle those migrants, the pact is not legally enforceable and depends on voluntary participation.

The US and its international partners, however, are running out of time to determine how they will support such migrants. Glaciers are melting and sea levels are rising, flooding low-level coastal areas where migrants have already started to flee. Increasing global temperatures have led to the desertification of farmland just as growing populations demand higher food production, making the terrain unlivable. Droughts cause local conflict over control of water resources and are the biggest killer among weather-related catastrophes, according to the UN.

Castro’s plan acknowledges that the existing criteria for refugees in the US may cover some migrants who have been persecuted in “climate-driven conflicts,” but ultimately, he says it’s not enough. The US must be proactive and “cannot wait for climate change to destabilize a society before providing assistance,” he writes.

The US is also militarily powerful enough to pressure most other countries to accept climate refugees by threatening WMD strikes on all which refuse. This must also be an American duty in face of the looming crisis. The US will not be able to take all the refugees by itself, nor should it take refugees who would rather go elsewhere but who are turned away, as this would only further encourage other countries to keep turning refugees away in the knowledge that someone else will take them all. Instead, the American duty is to ensure each country either takes in all who turn up at their borders, or simply be destroyed.

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Big win:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling

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It is unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the climate crisis, a landmark ruling by the United Nations human rights committee has found.

The judgment – which is the first of its kind – represents a legal “tipping point” and a moment that “opens the doorway” to future protection claims for people whose lives and wellbeing have been threatened due to global heating, experts say.

Tens of millions of people are expected to be displaced by global heating in the next decade.

Except of course UN rulings do not enforce themselves:

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While the judgment is not formally binding on countries, it points to legal obligations that countries have under international law.

Ultimately, what will decide the issue is whether or not the major military powers of the world are willing to use WMDs on countries that deport refugees.

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www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/un-food-agency-chief-world-on-brink-of-a-hunger-pandemic/ar-BB132fh9

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UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The head of the U.N. food agency warned Tuesday that, as the world is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, it is also “on the brink of a hunger pandemic” that could lead to “multiple famines of biblical proportions” within a few months if immediate action isn’t taken.

World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council that even before COVID-19 became an issue, he was telling world leaders that “2020 would be facing the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.” That’s because of wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, locust swarms in Africa, frequent natural disasters and economic crises including in Lebanon, Congo, Sudan and Ethiopia, he said.

Beasley said today 821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, a further 135 million people are facing “crisis levels of hunger or worse,” and a new World Food Program analysis shows that as a result of COVID-19 an additional 130 million people “could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.”

He said in the video briefing that WFP is providing food to nearly 100 million people on any given day, including “about 30 million people who literally depend on us to stay alive.”

Beasley, who is recovering from COVID-19, said if those 30 million people can’t be reached, “our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period” — and that doesn’t include increased starvation due to the coronavirus.

“In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in 10 of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation,” he said.

According to WFP, the 10 countries with the worst food crises in 2019 were Yemen, Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan, Nigeria and Haiti.

The borders have to be back open before this hits. This is why I keep saying that the idea of using WMDs against states which close their borders to refugees must be taken seriously. The numbers who could die from starvation if denied entry dwarfs the numbers of likely WMD deaths (to say nothing of the latter being more deserved than the former).

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www.newscientist.com/article/2242855-climate-change-has-already-made-parts-of-the-world-too-hot-for-humans/#ixzz6LyKOeunU
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Global warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.

Jacobabad in Pakistan and Ras al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates have both repeatedly crossed a deadly threshold for one or two hours at a time, an analysis of weather station data found.

Wet bulb temperature (TW) is a measure of heat and humidity, taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth. Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.

A US-UK team analysed weather station data across the world, and found that the frequency of wet bulb temperatures exceeding temperatures between 27°C TW and 35°C TW had all doubled since 1979. Though 35°C TW is thought of as a key threshold, harm and even death is possible at lower temperatures, so the team included these in their analysis.

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Billions of people could live in areas too hot for humans by 2070, study says
Hong Kong (CNN)If the planet continues to warm at current levels over the next 50 years, up to 3 billion people could be living in areas that are too hot for humans, a new study has found.
For thousands of years, humans have lived within a narrow "climate niche" where average temperatures are ideal for society to flourish, and conditions favorable to grow food and keep livestock.
In findings published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, an international team of archaeologists, climate scientists and ecologists said that if heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current pace, by 2070 billions of people will be living in conditions hotter than those that have allowed life to thrive for the past 6,000 years.
www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/world/global-warming-climate-niche-temperatures-intl-hnk/index.html

nationalpost.com/news/world/swathes-of-middle-east-and-north-africa-will-be-too-hot-for-humans-as-early-as-the-2040s-study

Good thing Judeo-Westerners put in all that effort helping Jews colonize Palestine, a land in which perhaps no one can live on with in 40 to 50 years.... Brilliant!!!

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90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2020, 03:23:41 am »
Good to see this issue back in the news:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html

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As their land fails them, hundreds of millions of people from Central America to Sudan to the Mekong Delta will be forced to choose between flight or death. The result will almost certainly be the greatest wave of global migration the world has seen.

For most of human history, people have lived within a surprisingly narrow range of temperatures, in the places where the climate supported abundant food production. But as the planet warms, that band is suddenly shifting north. According to a pathbreaking recent study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the planet could see a greater temperature increase in the next 50 years than it did in the last 6,000 years combined. By 2070, the kind of extremely hot zones, like in the Sahara, that now cover less than 1 percent of the earth’s land surface could cover nearly a fifth of the land, potentially placing one of every three people alive outside the climate niche where humans have thrived for thousands of years. Many will dig in, suffering through heat, hunger and political chaos, but others will be forced to move on. A 2017 study in Science Advances found that by 2100, temperatures could rise to the point that just going outside for a few hours in some places, including parts of India and Eastern China, “will result in death even for the fittest of humans.”
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People are already beginning to flee. In Southeast Asia, where increasingly unpredictable monsoon rainfall and drought have made farming more difficult, the World Bank points to more than eight million people who have moved toward the Middle East, Europe and North America. In the African Sahel, millions of rural people have been streaming toward the coasts and the cities amid drought and widespread crop failures. Should the flight away from hot climates reach the scale that current research suggests is likely, it will amount to a vast remapping of the world’s populations.

The time to start migrating is now in order to avoid the final rush.

guest5

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2020, 07:06:50 pm »
Climate-Related Events Could Force Millions to Migrate in Next 50 Years
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climate change could force millions of people to migrate in the next 50 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=659wt5Rxrj0

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violetcloud009
3 hours ago
Imagine the hardships our children and grandchildren have to face because of our insensitivity today. Let’s act now, however small the action might be.

Veronica Page Laflin
3 hours ago
The South Americans who's everything's on fire moved North only to get put in cages

Damireddy sisters
6 hours ago
This is a really important matter
Everyone shall know about this

SouthAsian Report
4 hours ago
The world will reshape for sure. And the villain of this reshape is Two leggie Human kind.

guest5

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2021, 07:06:27 pm »
Climate refugees: The quest for a haven from extreme weather events
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People who are driven from their homes by wildfires, floods and hurricanes are seeking areas less ravaged by our worsening climate and rising sea levels. Correspondent David Pogue examines how those with the means are relocating to "climate haven cities," and visits one city whose mayor boosts its lack of hurricanes and wildfires.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SByFy9R6320

guest5

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2021, 10:30:46 pm »
Climate ravages: Sea swallows parts of Senegal's UNESCO World Heritage site
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About 30 world leaders are participating in the 2021 One Climate Summit online, discussing critical issues pertaining to the environment. One place under threat from rising sea levels is the city of Saint Louis in Senegal. France and the World Bank have donated more than $40m to help people living in the UNESCO World heritage site cope as their city is eroded by the rising tides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmHzJCvbuQE

rp

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Re: Climate Refugees
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2021, 11:50:52 pm »
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 09:22:51 am by rp »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2021, 01:34:10 am »
Hope on the horizon?

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/04/22/ap-biden-mulling-offering-asylum-other-legal-protections-climate-migrants/

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President Biden issued an executive order on February 4 ordering national security adviser Jake Sullivan to produce a report by August 3 on “Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on Migration,” including options for protecting and resettling climate change-displaced persons.
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Specifically, the legislation would create a U.S. resettlement pathway for people displaced by climate change,” among other things.

“We have a greater chance now than ever before to get this done,” Markey told AP, citing the president’s climate diplomacy and awareness of the problem.

The World Meteorological Organization released a report Monday claiming that climate change has displaced an average of 23 million people annually since 2010 and nearly 10 million recorded in the first half of 2020 alone, especially in Asia and East Africa.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2021, 02:03:28 am »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvaI9nxSKAw

All climate refugees must be accepted into whichever country they choose to go to. All who try to prevent climate refugees from being accepted must be physically eliminated:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/enemies/

All who support climate refugees being accepted, together with the climate refugees themselves, must be better armed than those trying to stop them:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/true-left-vs-false-left/firearms/

It is that simple.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2021, 11:33:10 pm »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-climate-migrants-cross-borders-125013801.html

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As more climate migrants cross borders seeking refuge, laws will need to adapt

Climate change is upending people’s lives around the world, but when droughts, floods or sea level rise force them to leave their countries, people often find closed borders and little assistance.

Part of the problem is that today’s laws, regulations and international agreements about migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees offer few, if any, special protection to those forced to leave because of climate conditions.

National laws focus primarily on violence and conflict as drivers of forced migration and rarely consider environmental stress. In fact, no nation’s immigration system currently has environmental criteria for admission.
International agreements such as the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration and the Global Compact for Refugees mention the impacts of natural disasters and environmental degradation, but they are not legally binding.

The Biden administration has started exploring ways to identify and assist people who are displaced by climate change. But climate-driven migration is complicated.

Often, the environmental stressors associated with climate change are only one factor pushing people to migrate. For example, many migrants from Guatemala trying to enter the U.S. have struggled under severe droughts or storms, but many also fear crime and violence if they move to cities in their homeland to find work. Others are seeking opportunities that they and their children don’t have.

Of course everyone is being braindead here. Climate change itself is a form of violence! Those who experience it never consented to it! Western civilization went ahead with the Industrial Revolution without regard for anyone's consent! So in actuality, current refugee laws require accepting all climate refugees because they are all fleeing the violence of the Industrial Revolution!

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As experts in migration and climate risk, we have been studying how climate change is displacing people within their own countries and often pushing them to cross borders. Here are some of the key challenges the Biden administration faces and reasons this effort can’t wait.

How many climate migrants are there?

No one knows exactly how many climate migrants exist now or how many people will become climate migrants in the future, but current estimates are high.

In the coming years, the rapid pace of climate change combined with a global population nearing 8 billion people is likely to create unprecedented stress around the world. Recent studies show that dry spells and drought are already associated with increased migration.

As that stress intensifies, the need to escape hazards and threats is replacing the desire to seek opportunity as the key driver of international migration.

Disasters caused more than 23 million people a year to relocate over the past decade, the majority of them within their own countries, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Global Climate Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that this will increase as global warming intensifies. The World Bank projects that climate change will drive 143 million people in Latin America, Africa and South Asia alone to leave their homes by 2050. Many come from poor regions that have contributed little to global warming.

Legal definitions of ‘refugee’ are narrow

Until recently, scholars identified wars and conflict as principal sources of displacement.

Starting in the 1980s, some scholars began using the term “environmental refugee” for those forced to leave their homes because of disruptions related to human or naturally produced environmental events, such as desertification, deforestation, land degradation and rising sea levels.

But the international definition of refugee doesn’t include climate change.

The U.N.’s 1951 Refugee Convention establishes the obligations and responsibilities its member nations have to refugees. It defines refugees as people who are forced to flee their homelands because of fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion.

In contrast, international law does not clearly define migrants or climate migrants.
Thus, all migrants are subject to the immigration laws of their destination countries. Since these immigration laws also lack environmental criteria for accepting migrants, climate migrants often have nowhere to go.

Ridiculous! Global warming is known to hit the tropical regions hardest. It is also common knowledge habitat temperature exerts selective pressure:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/human-evolution/temperature-effects/

Therefore tropical people can be considered a race! Therefore climate refugees are indeed persecuted based on race! (Note: the Industrial Revolution was not introduced by tropical people.)

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Changing views of climate migration

While climate migrants are not legally considered refugees, many are highly vulnerable.

Lacking resources, climate migrants are likely to be poorer than most other international migrants. This may put them at a disadvantage as more countries’ policies scrutinize the economic prospects of immigrants before permitting them entry.

Yet climate migrants do not fit cleanly into categories of those who migrate voluntarily and those who are displaced by factors beyond their control.

Nonsense. See above.

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Take the case of Ioane Teitiota, a man from the island nation of Kiribati who sought refugee status in New Zealand in 2013. He was ultimately deported on the grounds that his life wasn’t in immediate danger in his homeland. But while Kiribati isn’t underwater yet, it is under stress as habitable land becomes more scarce and water supplies become contaminated by saltwater.

The U.N. Human Rights Commission rejected Teitiota’s appeal in 2020, but it also warned that governments could be in violation of U.N. agreements if they send people back to situations where climate change has created life-threatening risks.

Rethinking the role of disasters

Climate change and other environmental stresses have increasingly become drivers of displacement, but in ways that do not fit neatly within the bright dichotomy that law and policy use to distinguish between refugees and other people on the move.

We believe it’s time for countries worldwide to rethink the role of disasters and climate change in migration, recognize the rights of those displaced by environmental causes and reform international and national laws and policies, which are out of date with what’s known today about climate change and displacement. Nations may be reluctant to offer what may seem like a new portal for migrants, but evidence suggests those numbers will only rise, and countries need to be prepared.

Yes. But on top of that, what is really needed is willingness for countries which accept refugees to militarily retaliate against countries which do not. Ignoring climate refugees for a moment and looking at refugees that are already officially recognized, it remains the case that many are rejected every day. In other words, official recognition does not guarantee acceptance. And the countries which reject refugees face no devastating consequences and hence have no incentive to improve their behaviour. As such, merely changing the definition of "refugee" to include climate refugees will mean nothing: countries which reject refugees will just continue to do so secure in the knowledge that they will face no devastating consequences. The only way to guarantee that all climate refugees are accepted is for every country to know that not accepting refugees guarantees that country will be nuked. There is nothing hyperbolic about this.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2021, 11:36:21 pm by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2021, 01:04:27 am »
https://unherd.com/2021/07/the-walls-are-going-up-across-europe/

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The walls are going up across Europe

The EU is preparing for a militarised war on immigration
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the Europe of 2021 is not the Europe of 2015, and Europe’s leaders have no appetite for a return of the political turmoil that followed Merkel’s experiment with open borders. Distracted by Brexit and imported American culture wars, Britain’s remaining pro-EU contingent have neglected to follow the developing consensus on the continent, where the hard line on migration for which Viktor Orbán was lambasted by liberal commentators back in 2015 has now entered the political mainstream.

Which is exactly what I warned would happen unless WMDs were dropped on Hungary.

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When asked whether Germany had a duty to open the country’s doors to Afghan migration, even Merkel herself recently responded that “we cannot solve all of these problems by taking everyone in”.

I told you Merkel was a coward.

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The Austrian government has decisively swung towards the Central European approach of hardened borders and expedited returns to countries of origin, with Kurz stressing that he would not halt deportations to Afghanistan, as Sweden and Finland already have, a reflection of a public mood darkened by recent high-profile crimes carried out by Afghan asylum seekers. Like centre-left Denmark, which is accelerating both its return of refugees to Syria and the search, apparently along with the UK, of third-party countries in Africa willing to host refugees and migrants on its behalf, the new mood in Austria is not the result of the populist Right coming to power, but instead of centrist parties adopting solutions that were in 2015 considered the sole preserve of the radical Right.

And why did this happen? Because everyone saw that there were no WMD-level consequences for Denmark's behaviour. Whatever is not punished will spread.

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As in Spain, where the next government is likely to be a coalition between the centre-right PP and the radical right Vox, in Italy a coalition government between the centre-Right and the far-Right looms in the wings. Indeed, Salvini’s Lega is now so outflanked on its Right by the rising power of Georgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers of Italy party, the most popular political party in the country, that it can be considered centre-Right itself, so far has the country’s Overton Window shifted. In France, where Macron has angrily rejected an imported American racial culture war in favour of the country’s homegrown culture war over Islam and the possibility of civil war, the soi-disant liberal saviour from the perceived populist menace has moved so far to the Right that the roughly even chances of a Le Pen victory in the forthcoming presidential election seem almost irrelevant in defining the country’s political trajectory.

I predicted all of this. If you are too squeamish to use a few WMDs at an early stage, this is what you get.

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Perhaps it is Greece that highlights best not just the shifting mood in Europe’s external border states, but the shifting mood in Brussels itself. When Erdogan opened Turkey’s land borders with Greece in spring last year, bussing migrants to the border fences in a confrontation that came uncomfortably close to war, Greece’s militarised response unexpectedly won applause rather than censure from the EU hierarchy, as well as the swift dispatch of both Frontex border guards and funds to build an impassable border wall, now being beefed up with EU surveillance zeppelins and drones. Rather than a rerun of the 2015 migrant crisis, when Europe functioned as a ready source of monetary tribute to an embattled Erdogan, last year’s Evros crisis functioned as a dry run for the coming Afghan wave.

Again, this is what happens when no WMDs are dropped on Greece.

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Once again, the exact same fortification project Orbán was condemned for in 2015 was hurriedly paid for by the EU in 2020, and presented as a heartening symbol of EU solidarity by 2021. From the Baltic to the Aegean, walls are going up across the eastern marches of the European continent, which will soon define the bloc against the huddling masses straining to get in.

So now, it will be innocent refugees dying instead of those who deserve to die.

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Meanwhile, Europe’s only interest in Libya is which faction can most effectively police migrants, just as its only interest in Tunisia’s ongoing coup will be the maintenance of this summer’s border policing deal.
...
it is difficult to think, given the steady rightward drift of European politics, that an Open Borders attitude will win out against the simpler solution of a hands-on European effort to prevent migrants entering the EU.

Only the threat of American WMDs can turn it around now.

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The expansion of the EU’s Frontex border agency into a 10,000 strong armed rapid deployment force indicates the direction of travel. Indeed, we are already seeing early manifestations of this approach, both in the pushbacks of migrants in the Aegean by the Greek coastguard with Frontex support, and in the growing legal restrictions on the activity of Western European NGO boats blamed for accelerating the migrant flow. Both were placed with the quiet acquiescence of Brussels, despite the protests of Northern European Green parties.

All this is, of course, a dry run for the almost certainly militarised and exclusionary border policing efforts that will grapple with the vast population movements from Africa and South Asia that will attend the coming decades of climate change. Already, Bangladeshis are the largest single national group making the dangerous crossing from North Africa, and it is not difficult to see a desertifying Sahel or collapsing Lebanon adding new sudden crises for European leaders torn between their desire to maintain allegiance to postwar liberal ideals on asylum and the increasing desire of their voting publics to reject them. The avowedly open, cosmopolitan Europe of the 1990s and 2000s is already dead, and even the lame duck Merkel and her ailing CDU party have abandoned the Wir schaffen das attitude of 2015 in the face of the coming wave.

So, will the US tell the EU to either accept all refugees who arrive, or be nuked? Does America understand that this is the true destined mission of its nuclear arsenal?

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The walls are going up across Europe: we will not see them coming down again in our lifetimes.

Unless they are bombed down by a woke America.


90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2021, 12:04:52 am »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLz25OQn3Ng

Note 0:25-0:39; mainstream news is starting to incorporate our line!

The civilization primarily responsible for global warming should be the one which primarily bears the burden of its consequences. Western countries, especially France (and arguably Portugal) which formerly colonized Madagascar, have a duty to take in the entire population of Madagascar (~28 million) if necessary. If a fraction of the world must starve in the climate crisis, it should first be the fraction from the bloodlines which drove the Industrial Revolution, not those from the bloodlines (such as in the video) which had absolutely nothing to do with it. (And if those who should starve first refuse to starve first, we should make them eat WMDs (which, by no coincidence, also exist due to their bloodlines). As I keep repeating, it is poetic justice to unleash the full power of modern weapons against the civilization which invented them in the first place.)
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 12:12:14 am by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2021, 09:46:04 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyXIZNVRfhc

Then at least one in three Afghans should emigrate ASAP. The carrying capacity of Afghanistan has been decreased by the drought. Sending food in is only a stop-gap measure. The only long-term solution is for people to move out until the remaining population falls back below the new carrying capacity.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2021, 11:19:10 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyiRXBBdB4Y

Hurry up and emigrate from the affected areas! Don't wait for the main rush!

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2021, 11:26:51 pm »
https://www.ft.com/content/415f4a8c-cab4-4f95-99aa-b347bb510365

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Migration will soon be the biggest climate challenge of our time

    As heat, drought and rising sea levels make regions uninhabitable, millions of people will need to find new homes

The writer is the author of ‘Move: How Mass Migration Will Reshape the World — and What It Means For You’

… As heat, rising seas and drought render swaths of the planet uninhabitable, millions, if not billions of people may eventually have to relocate to terrain in the latitudes best suited to survival. The toughest challenge that lies before us isn’t reducing emissions, it’s relocating people. …

Tens of millions more Asians may be forced to relocate permanently across Eurasia as parts of Asia become uninhabitable and livelihoods dry up.


    We must bridge the gap between the hyper-sensitised and short-term political discourse around migration and the collective strategy needed to house humanity. Speaking of human geography rather than migration can be a powerful rhetorical tool, for it emphasises that we are all in the same boat and gently shifts the focus from narrow national sovereignty to expansive planetary stewardship.

    In a world with a changing climate, we need a new division of labour among the continents. South America and Africa will become ever more regions of emigrants. North America and Eurasia must absorb more people, while recirculating them from the water-stressed southern US and south Asia into more fertile inland areas. There will be climate pioneers who terraform difficult new terrain in places such as Canada and Russia for millions of future migrants.

Our political cartography will also evolve. Sinking South Pacific islands will need to be abandoned for Australia and New Zealand, which will in effect become their protectorates within a collective Oceania rather than meaningful sovereigns. Today’s fiscally strained and depopulating Visegrad countries could fuse into a larger federation to better administer their vital forests, agriculture and rivers in order to prepare for demographic replenishment by Arabs and Asians.

And if war is required to make it happen, we should be positively keen to begin bombing.

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Many scholars ask: what lies beyond sovereignty? If we are wise, the answer will be “programmable geography” — recoding places based on their changing roles in our fluid global system. Habitable geography is our most precious terrestrial resource, and we must optimise it for those that come after us. Adapting sovereignty to a new reality is what we owe the future.

This guy obviously does not understand sovereignty. Authentic (autocratic) sovereignty means the individual ruler can say: "This is my country and welcoming refugees is my decision, and existing residents who don't like my decision can leave." Sovereignty is the antidote to nativism. It is because we presently don't have strong enough sovereignty that nativists think the country belongs to them! I like the idea of programmable geography, but only absolute dictators can be effective programmers.

Anyway:

https://www.amazon.com/Move-Migration-Reshape-World-Means-ebook/dp/B08T17WCC5
« Last Edit: October 09, 2021, 12:03:45 am by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2021, 09:42:19 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncd-n6vd5xI

Emigration is the obvious solution, but enough people will emigrate in time only if they are confident they will be accepted as climate refugees. This is why we need to get all the borders back open ASAP. On the other hand, we will need demographic pressure on the borders in order to open them, so I still recommend climate refugees start migrating even if currently it is uncertain they will be accepted. At least the media will have to report people starving right at the borders which can be seen refusing to let them in. Whereas if people stay put and starve, it is much easier to dismiss as something happening elsewhere irrelevant to the countries keeping their borders closed (even though the closed borders are precisely what is keeping the migrants stuck where they must starve!).
« Last Edit: October 16, 2021, 10:34:35 pm by 90sRetroFan »