Author Topic: Climate refugees  (Read 1742 times)

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2021, 09:19:01 pm »
Only a vague beginning, but hopefully can lead to something more concrete:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-report-opens-door-refugee-status-climate-activists-environmental-defenders

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The "Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration" includes claims that "there is an interplay between climate change and various aspects of eligibility for refugee status."

It goes on to state that if a government that denies "relief from the impact of climate change to specific individuals who share a protected characteristic in a manner and to a degree amounting to persecution" then that could open such people to refugee status.

It also states that "adverse impacts of climate change" could affect whether someone has a viable relocation alternative within their own country.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2021, 03:51:30 am »
If you are living somewhere where it hasn't rained for over a year, emigrate!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5JKdNKdud4

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2021, 05:55:55 am »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNTWdO9Q3zM

Do you think this weakling can get borders open for climate refugees? Neither do I.

Getting borders open will require willingness to use WMDs on those who refuse to comply. It is that simple.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2021, 12:17:23 am »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C52lLelOxEE

The mistake is to merely move from rural areas into urban areas. The carrying capacity of the entire country is lower than what it used to be due to increased temperatures, so relocating within the country doesn't really help (and even makes things worse as the video outlines). The correct response should be to emigrate (preferably to one of the countries which invaded Iraq in 2003):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq

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Coalition:

 United States
 United Kingdom
 Australia
 Poland
...
Supported by:
 Italy
 Netherlands
 Spain

until the remaining population falls back below the new carrying capacity.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2021, 09:05:52 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ImB2S8BpyE

Sending emergency supplies is just a temporary fix. Facilitating mass emigration (which requires other countries willing to open their borders) until the population falls back below the land's reduced carrying capacity is the true answer.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2021, 09:08:39 pm by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2021, 08:50:14 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKFKbfa1bgs

The only serious solution is mass emigration. The most obvious choices of destination for Indians are probably Britain, Canada, Australia, etc., but other good destinations are Netherlands, Denmark, France, Austria, Portugal and Sweden:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_India

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Dutch India   1605–1825
Danish India   1620–1869
French India   1668–1954
Austrian India   1778–1785
Portuguese India
(1505–1961)
...
British India
(1612–1947)
...
Swedish East India Company   1731–1813

Even if ~100 million Indians emigrated to each of the above listed destinations, the remaining population would be ~1.4 billion - ~900 million = ~500 million, which is still several times higher than the pre-colonial population:



but it would be a start.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2021, 09:45:25 pm »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-climate-migration-worsen-111523464.html

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Op-Ed: Climate migration will worsen the brutality and chaos on the Mediterranean

In July 2018, an Italian-flagged oil supply ship called the Asso 28 that was crossing the Mediterranean Sea encountered a stalled rubber raft carrying 100 desperate migrants. Trying to make the dangerous journey from Libya to Europe, the migrants had reached international waters when the supply ship rescued them. But the ship’s captain opted not to take the migrants to a port of safety in Europe, as required by law, but back to a gulag of migrant detention facilities in Libya
...
Since at least 2017, the EU, led by Italy, has trained and equipped the Libyan coast guard to serve as a proxy maritime force, whose central purpose is to stop migrants from reaching European shores. Frontex, the EU border agency, locates migrant rafts, then alerts the Italians, who, in turn, inform the Libyan authorities. Once captured by the Libyan coast guard, tens of thousands of these migrants are then delivered into a dozen or so detention centers run by militias.

For the EU, and for the ship captains working the Mediterranean, the challenge of handling desperate migrants fleeing hardships in their native countries is only going to grow more pronounced.

Climate change is expected to displace 150 million people across the globe in the next 50 years. Rising seas, desertification and famine will drive the desperate to places like Europe and the U.S., testing the moral character and political imagination of countries better prepared to survive an overheated planet.
...
Though it routinely opens fire on migrant rafts and has been tied to human trafficking, the coast guard continues to draw strong EU support. This year, the EU shipped six new speedboats to the coast guard, which uses them to capture migrants.

Even though the EU denies directly financing the abuse of migrants in Libya, an investigation by the Outlaw Ocean Project showed that EU money, typically flowing through humanitarian aid agencies, was nonetheless essential to the operation of both the coast guard and the detention centers where the migrants were kept.

I had long been interested in reporting on Libya’s gulag of migrant jails. A month before I was to head to Libya in May, I saw a tweet from an aid group about a shooting in one of Libya’s most notorious detention centers, Al Mabani, or “The Building,” located in the heart of the capital city of Tripoli. The victim was a young migrant from North Africa named Aliou Candé, who had been captured and sent there a few weeks earlier.

Through interviews, I learned that Candé was 28 and grew up on a farm near a remote village in Guinea Bissau, a place without plumbing or electricity. He was a fan of soccer and music, and in addition to speaking French and English, he was learning Portuguese in hopes of joining a brother in Portugal. He had a reputation as a dogged worker, who avoided trouble of any kind. “People respected him,” his brother Jacaria said.

But Candé would become a climate migrant — droughts in Guinea Bissau had become more common and longer; flooding became more unpredictable and damaging. His crops — cassava, mangoes and cashews — were failing and his children were hungry.
...
Roughly 70 miles from Libya, the Libyan coast guard rammed the migrants’ raft three times, then ordered them to climb a ladder to the ship. The migrants were taken back to land, loaded by armed guards into buses and trucks, and driven to Al Mabani.

Hundreds of detainees have died in these jails, subjected to deplorable conditions and violence by guards. Candé was killed in April when guards opened fire into part of the prison to stop a fight among detainees.
...
No one was punished for Candé’s death.
...
Of course, the EU is not alone in trying to outsource the dirty work of containing migration. In the last decade, the U.S. government has sought to reduce the flow of Latin American migrants to this country by pressuring Mexico to stop migrants at its southern border before they reach the U.S. So-called “remote vetting” for those seeking asylum also enables U.S. immigration authorities to avoid the quandary of what to do with people whose applications were denied but who come from places that lack deportation agreements. Migrants in detention centers in Mexico face extremely poor conditions, including overcrowding and lack of healthcare services, according to the Global Detention Project, a human rights organization based in Geneva.

Violence initiated against refugees can only be stopped by retaliatory violence against border forces.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2021, 08:58:11 pm »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-crisis-killing-migrants-trying-190007007.html

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Undocumented migrants who attempt to cross the border from Mexico to the US are disproportionately dying in a harsh stretch of desert that is becoming deadlier due to the climate crisis, a new research has found.

Migrants and asylum seekers trying to enter the US are often forced to traverse the harsh environment of the Sonoran desert in order to avoid border patrols and fortified crossing points. This hazardous journey is putting many of them under severe physical stress, according to researchers, with many dying in the heat due to dehydration and organ failure.

This risk will only intensify as the world heats up further due to human activity, with the research finding that in the next three decades migrants will become so dehydrated in the desert that they will have to carry 34% more water with them in order to survive.

“Crossing the border across these extreme environments is really dangerous for humans to do and in the next 30 years, with rising temperatures, it’s going to become even more extreme and push those levels to even further beyond what humans can actually sustain,” said Hallie Walker, a researcher at the University of Idaho and co-author of the research, published in Science. “It is incredibly dangerous.”

In the year to 30 September, US border agents apprehended more than 1.7 million people attempting to cross from Mexico into the US. Many of those who avoid arrest do so by taking on the daunting journey across the Sonoran desert, a rocky, scrubby expanse of land in Mexico and the southwestern US that oscillates between scorching heat in summer to freezing conditions in winter and contains more species of rattlesnake than any region in the world.

An estimated 350 people a year, many fleeing violence and persecution at home, die attempting this crossing, with some of these deaths due to suicide, exposure or car accidents. Researchers found, however, that a significant risk is the loss of fluids in a region where summer temperatures can reach 48C (118F).

Using a model that factored in the physical toll of making a journey from Nogales, a Mexican border city and Three Points, Arizona, the study found that people can succumb to the conditions within just a few days, with migrants often ill-prepared for the journey. The stress is highest for pregnant women and children, with the research finding that a pregnant women needs nearly 12 liters of water a day to survive making the trek in June.

Many do not get the adequate water and rest required, leading to deaths. The study found a “significant correlation between high levels of predicted evaporative water loss and the density of deaths” which “strongly implicate temperature and water availability as major contributors to broader patterns of migrant mortality during summer”.

The loss of water can cause disorientation and hallucinations, before becoming potentially fatal. The research cites interviews with migrants who explain how their toenails fell off during long hikes over the desert’s mountains or how they lost their eyesight and suffered chest pains as they struggled onward.

“Essentially the US is funneling individuals into places that they experience such extreme physiological stress that I, as an evolutionary biologist, couldn’t get approval from my university to put animals through the sorts of stresses that individuals are being put through,” said Shane Campbell-Staton, a researcher at Princeton and lead author of the study. “That’s how extreme these physiological stresses are.”

Migrants crossing the US’ southern border have become a political target in recent years, with Donald Trump instituting punishing detention and child separation policies, as well as a system known as “remain in Mexico”, which expels people back to Mexico as their claim to stay in the US is considered. Joe Biden opposed this plan but recently reinstated it following a legal challenge from two states.

This sort of deterrence is unlikely to completely halt people from seeking refuge in the US, particularly those increasingly fleeing intolerable conditions in Mexico and Central America that are being worsened by the climate crisis. A series of droughts and storms have wreaked havoc upon communities, particularly farmers, forcing them to seek livable alternatives further north.

“We knowingly kill them at the border. And yet we ignore them once they’re here, when they’re doing the jobs that Americans don’t want to do,” said Jason De Leon, an anthropologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who was also involved in the study.

“I think we were about to live in a climatic version of the book Children of Men, where instead of a fertility issue, we’re dealing now with a global climatic issue. We are seeing people having to leave their homes because of climate change,” he added. “And I think that we can no longer disentangle those two things, that they’re intimately related and it’s only going to get worse, unfortunately for a lot of people around the globe.”

Which is why I keep saying over and over again: don't wait for the main rush; get out as early as you can!

Dazhbog

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2021, 06:01:37 am »
Migrants and asylum seekers trying to enter the US are often forced to traverse the harsh environment of the Sonoran desert in order to avoid border patrols and fortified crossing points. This hazardous journey is putting many of them under severe physical stress, according to researchers, with many dying in the heat due to dehydration and organ failure.

This risk will only intensify as the world heats up further due to human activity, with the research finding that in the next three decades migrants will become so dehydrated in the desert that they will have to carry 34% more water with them in order to survive.

“Crossing the border across these extreme environments is really dangerous for humans to do and in the next 30 years, with rising temperatures, it’s going to become even more extreme and push those levels to even further beyond what humans can actually sustain,” said Hallie Walker, a researcher at the University of Idaho and co-author of the research, published in Science. “It is incredibly dangerous.”

...and yet another reason why rightists refuse to tackle climate change.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2022, 08:01:30 pm »
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19850946.neil-mackays-big-read-mass-migration-coming-future-scotland-asian-says-leading-migration-expert-dr-parag-khanna/

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Scotland’s political culture, with its pro-immigration slant, and our geography and natural resources, which see us well placed to withstand the climate crisis, will make us a magnet for a new generation of migrants set to reshape the 21st century.

Dr Parag Khanna – the world’s leading intellectual on migration – presents a stunning analysis of the future. To the pro-immigration side of the political debate, such as Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP, Khanna’s claims will be well received; others, in the populist anti-migrant camp, will be infuriated, even fearful. Khanna’s comments will play directly into Scotland’s increasingly fraught culture wars.
...
 WE have always been on the move, says Khanna; migration is a central part of humanity’s long story. Since Western colonisation began, migration sped up.

“In every century since,” Khanna explains, “the number of migrants has increased because the number of drivers of migration has increased.” In the past, some Europeans wanted to get rich in new colonies, others fled disasters like the Irish famine. War played its part, as did the opening up of America, Canada and Australia. When it comes to the progress of migration through the centuries, says Khanna, “the decimal place always moves to the right. We went from millions of migrants to tens of millions in the 18th century”. By the 19th and 20th century, “we’ve got hundreds of millions of migrants”.

Today, climate change has been added to the forces compelling migration. Throughout this century, swathes of the planet will become uninhabitable, it’s predicted, displacing entire populations.

“In this century,” says Khanna, “in just 20 years, climate change already accounts for 30-40 per cent of total displacement in the world.” So, the drivers of migration are now threefold: “You’ve got one-third economic, one-third political [wars and persecution], and one-third climate change and, of course, they all tie together. Look at the Syrian drought which led to urbanisation, political unrest, civil war and an exodus of nearly one-quarter of the population as refugees.”

In this century, says Khanna, “we’re talking about billions of people moving – that’s what I’m trying to explain, literally billions”.

Our mission is to help get them inside wherever it is they choose to relocate.

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If the populations of India, Bangladesh and Pakistan are combined they exceed China’s population. Khanna believes it is young people from the sub-continent who will make up the mass of future migrants. Much of the sub-continent faces more climate danger than China, with its higher proportion of “liveable areas”.

 Chinese youth is less likely to want to leave home, Khanna believes. China is stable and strong and while young Chinese people might like studying in the West “not everyone wants to be a political revolutionary and live under liberal democratic freedoms”.

Indians also have role models in the shape of migrant tech tycoons like Sundar Pichai, Google CEO, and Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal. Fundamentally, says Khanna, “Indians want to get the hell out of India”. The West needs to prepare for the rise of the “Asian European”.

Our mission is to prepare to fight against those who do not accept this idea.

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EUROPE should view mass migration not just as a benefit but a lifeline, Khanna believes. The West’s entire discussion around migration is ****-eyed, he feels. We have low birth rates, ageing populations, not enough workers – especially to care for our growing elderly populations – and plenty of space. “Europe should be competing in a cut-throat manner to recruit as many smart Asians as possible.”

If the Counterculture era had not ended, it might have been this way.

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Instead, Europe has seen the rise of anti-immigrant nationalist and populist politics. “You cannot simultaneously hold that labour shortages are becoming more acute and also hold that populism remains an immutable force because the truth is that the more painful the demographic and therefore fiscal circumstances become, the more likely it is that populism will have to bend to economic realities,” Khanna says.

And Turandom disagrees. So what do we do?

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IN fact, says Khanna, “populism is complete bull****”. Italy, he points out, “has more migrants than when Matteo Salvini [the right-wing anti-migrant populist leader] was at the peak of his powers”. Khanna notes that after Brexit, demographics and worker shortages now mean “it’s factually easier to migrate to Britain as a young Asian than it was five years ago – and right under Trump’s nose, America became more diverse, more mixed race. We should really view populism for the political blip it is”.

And what about the Turandom countries, you optimistic fool?

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Unless Western nations want to decline inexorably, “immigration policy needs to be dictated by supply and demand” not insular notions of identity. Khanna also notes that the current manifestation of populism may, quite literally, be short-lived. The mostly elderly “xenophobic populist generation is heading for the Big Brexit in the Sky”, he says. Meantime, anti-migrant policies are damaging Western economies, he maintains.

And what about the Turandom countries, you optimistic fool?

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WESTERN democracies need to change their policies for “pragmatic, rational and self-interested” reasons. If the West continues to adopt anti-immigrant policies, despite the economic and demographic pressures, migrants will still come anyway, only in an uncontrolled, dangerous manner, as we’ve seen in the English channel. Economics and demographics mean eventually “Britain is going to wind up reverting to pro-immigration norms”. Canada, with its liberal policies, “says more about the future of the West than Hungary does”.

The media has skewed the conversation on migration, Khanna believes: concentrating more on bogeymen like Hungary’s authoritarian populist Viktor Orban than Canada’s liberal Justin Trudeau.

Focusing on Orban flies in the face “of the nature of reality”. Says Khanna: “Canada absorbs more people in a few years than the entire population of Hungary; Orban is on his way out, and nobody wants to go to Hungary anyway. We put all this attention on a peripheral loser rather than the greatest mass-migration story of the 21st century: Canada. Shame on us for that. We do ourselves a great disservice.”

WRONG. If we do not finish off Hungary now, one day it will become another Israel.

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With demographic destiny staring the West in face, Europeans, says Khanna, “should actually be the most pro-immigrant people in the world.

They should be, but they won't be, and telling them they should be will not make them so. Now I say we should exterminate them, but you won't agree. So they will win. The evil people will win because the moderate people refused to listen to the good people.

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KHANNA is an optimist. He believes good sense will prevail in the West

I hope Khanna is correct and I am wrong, but I doubt it.

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Khanna points to France for failing miserably on this issue. “I don’t think France will ever get its s*** together,” he says bluntly. Significantly, Islamophobia and hostility to migrants currently dominates French politics.

Khanna sees Germany as the European country leading the way when it comes to creating social unity between races.

Reminder: France has nukes while Germany does not. Can you figure out what this means?

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Russia – the world’s biggest wheat exporter – needs farmers, and Bangladesh has people facing rising sea levels … why not put them together and solve two global problems at once? However, clearly, an anti-migrant Kremlin would never countenance such an idea.

And Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world, whereas Bangladesh has no nukes. Can you figure out what this means?

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Whether nationalists and populists like it or not, as climate change bites, populations will have to move.

Nukes bite harder.

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KHANNA predicts four scenarios for the future amid mass migration and climate change: the “Regional Fortress” where Western democracies remain relatively stable but simply shut the doors; a “New Middle Ages” of widespread global chaos with more stable regions “fortifying themselves against climate migrants”; “Barbarians at the Gate” where climate change crashes the global economy and there’s anarchy and war; or the optimum “Northern Lights” where the northern habitable parts of the world absorb up to two billion climate migrants and humanity manages to flourish, perhaps even moving seasonally from region to region depending on extremes of weather.

I am betting on a mixture of "Regional Fortress" and "New Middle Ages" if we do nothing. If we get our act together, however, we could upgrade it into "Barbarians at the Gate" (though I strongly disagree with the name; the real barbarians are the ones trying to keep the gates closed). "Northern Lights" will only happen if we destroy all of Turandom first.

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Clearly, whether we turn that into a success story or make the journey into the future a bitter one filled with racism and animosity, isn’t just dependent on who leads the country and whether we’re ruled by London or Edinburgh –it’s also down to all of us ordinary citizens, and how we shape our opinions amid the coming “Great Migration” of the 21st century.

The opinions have already been shaped. What it is really down to is whether those with anti-racist opinions have enough animosity to be willing to ruthlessly exterminate those with racist opinions. I do. Khanna, however, clearly does not (seeing as he thinks animosity is a bad thing).
« Last Edit: February 04, 2022, 08:06:56 pm by 90sRetroFan »

guest55

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #25 on: February 04, 2022, 08:13:52 pm »
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"Barbarians at the Gate" (though I strongly disagree with the name; the real barbarians are the ones trying to keep the gates closed).

Fascinating. Was just thinking to myself along similar lines last night. In ancient times barbarian hordes would usually arise outside of city walls and gates, but in modern times with no state doing it's duty to control it's own population and demographics when barbarian hordes arise they are usually already within the city walls and gates. How can any nation-state survive this?

guest55

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2022, 08:10:39 pm »
Confronting Environmental Racism: View from the Front Lines of the Climate Justice Struggle
Quote
Speakers: Jacqueline Patterson, Environmental and Climate Justice Director, NAACP and Ahmina Maxey, Zero Waste Detroit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2bnleKyajo

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2022, 01:00:31 am »
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1501613265163538434

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"We’re already seeing climate refugees around the world," he said. "If you think migration has been a problem in Europe in the Syrian War or even from what we see now, wait until you see 100 million people for whom the entire food production capacity has collapsed."

Are we ready to help as many of them get in as possible? And arm them once they are in so that they can fight back if our enemies try to deport them (which our enemies will definitely do)?

guest55

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2022, 09:12:21 pm »
Cuba's growing wave of migration, protests erupt over travel restrictions | International News
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Many have been dropping everything and some have sold their homes over hopes of joining the mainland migrant highway to the United States but the country is having new travel blocks of people trying to flee.

#Cubans #Migration #Travelblocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpKnaTPPeW4

90sRetroFan

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Re: Climate refugees
« Reply #29 on: April 15, 2022, 03:00:30 am »
Continuing from:

https://trueleft.createaforum.com/issues/climate-refugees/msg10011/#msg10011

now:

https://us.yahoo.com/news/india-risks-widespread-blackouts-summer-100220464.html

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LONDON (Reuters) -India faces a persistent shortage of electricity over the next four months as rapid demand growth from air conditioners and refrigeration loads overwhelms the available generation on the network.
...
Exceptionally high loads have arrived far earlier this year, well before the most intense period of summer heat, implying the grid is in trouble
...
India's grid is under increasing pressure from the rapid growth in load from commercial and residential air conditioners, refrigeration and other loads, boosting electricity consumption at all levels of coal stocking.

Temperatures in northern India have been unusually high for the time of year since mid-March, resulting in a rapid rise in electricity demand.

Peak daily loads in the seven days centred on April 8 were more than 9% higher than the same period a year earlier.
...
Average daily temperatures rose above 24°C in New Delhi as early as March 13 and power demand has surged since then.

The early arrival of hot weather means there have been 182 cooling degree days so far this year compared with a long-term seasonal average of 99.

But temperatures are likely to continue rising to a peak at the end of June or beginning of July, pushing electricity demand even higher over the next 2-4 months.

Given the grid is already struggling, it is unlikely to be able to serve higher loads between May and August, making load shedding and other power cuts more or less inevitable during any period of unusually hot weather.

Western air conditioners will only make the surroundings hotter still!



A problem created by Western civilization cannot be solved with more Western civilization!

The correct solution is mass emigration for cooler countries. Preferably those which colonized India in the past. (Which by no coincidence belong to Western civilization which was responsible for causing global warming in the first place! See how it works?)
« Last Edit: April 15, 2022, 04:23:27 am by 90sRetroFan »