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Author Topic: Demographic Blueshift  (Read 89 times)

90sRetroFan

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Demographic Blueshift
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:00:29 am »
OLD CONTENT

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www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2018/04/14/449461/americas-electoral-future-2/

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The recent elections of Donald Trump and Barack Obama were influenced in no small measure by shifts in the nation’s underlying demographic structure—the rise of communities of color, the increase in the number of older Americans, the sharpening of education divisions—and the distinctive voting behavior of these demographic groups. This 2018 report of the States of Change project, the fourth in an annual series, examines an array of future presidential election outcome scenarios—from 2020 through 2036—that could arise as the demography of the nation and its 50 states changes over the next 18 years.

These scenarios, developed by the authors, include outcomes that favor both Republican and Democratic candidates. They are not intended as predictions but are simulations based on assumptions about different demographic groups’ future voting patterns. Each of the alternative scenarios assumes the same projections for the nation’s underlying demographic structure of eligible voters (EVs) with respect to race, age, and education attainment. As such, the scenarios provide for a more in-depth understanding than national or state polling trends can supply about how emerging voting patterns may interact with changes in the demography of the nation’s electorate to affect future popular vote and Electoral College outcomes.

Many analysts suggest that if current voting patterns remain the same as in recent elections, the projected rise of communities of color—Hispanics, blacks, Asians, and others—will favor Democrats as the Republican-leaning white share of the electorate shrinks. However, the aging of the population and the continued substantial political clout of whites without college educations played a key role in electing Republican Donald Trump. Because the demography of these latter groups differs across states in ways that tend to benefit Republicans, this report finds that quite a few future scenarios could mimic the result of the 2016 election—a Democratic win in the popular vote with a Republican win in the Electoral College.

See also:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-only-men-voted-only-women-only-nonwhite-voters/

www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/demographic-shifts-show-2020-presidential-race-could-be-close-n868146

What can be done in practice to increase the rate of Blueshift as efficiently as possible?
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 03:19:19 am by 90sRetroFan »

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90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 12:11:42 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/k-8-students-hit-milestone-about-half-are-minorities-n946666

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AUSTIN, Texas — The country’s steadily diversifying student population has hit a milestone: about half of kindergarten through eighth-grade students are racial and ethnic minorities.

The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that 49.9 percent of the K-8 students in 2017 were non-Hispanic white, down from 56.7 percent a decade earlier.

What matters to us, however, is voters. We will have to wait ~15 years for this lot to all enter the voting population and become part of the Blueshift. What we are fighting for is the crucial interval before this happens, because the Reds are trying to use this interval to prevent it from happening altogether:

www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/06/trump-immigration-plan-could-keep-whites-in-u-s-majority-for-up-to-five-more-years/

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President Trump's proposal to cut legal immigration rates would delay the date that white Americans become a minority of the population by as few as one or as many as five additional years, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.

The plan, released by the White House last month, would scale back a program that allows people residing in the United States to sponsor family members living abroad for green cards, and would eliminate the “diversity visa program” that benefits immigrants in countries with historically low levels of migration to the United States. Together, the changes would disproportionately affect immigrants from Latin America and Africa.

The Census Bureau projects that minority groups will outnumber non-Hispanic whites in the United States in 2044. The Post's analysis projects that, were Trump's plan to be carried out, the date would be between 2045 and 2049, depending on how parts of it are implemented.

Remember that the voting population lags behind the total population by almost two decades. So the US won't be in the safe zone until 2064 even by the optimistic estimate, whereas I would like the US to reach the safe zone within the 2020s if possible. Because the next GOP candidate could easily be so far-right that we might even prefer having Trump back! (Remember those days when we used to be sure there would never in the rest of history be a worse US president than W. Bush? We'd be fools to think we have hit rock bottom with Trump. Think about it this way: to the average Trump voter, Trump is still too moderate. This means even the average Trump voter is a more evil person than Trump himself. Let that sink in for a moment.)

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Demographic Blueshift is happening. Perhaps not fast enough for our liking, but at least it is happening:

www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/ (please study the whole thing)

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Only about three-in-ten Gen Zers and Millennials (30% and 29%, respectively) approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president. This compares with 38% of Gen Xers, 43% of Boomers and 54% of Silents. Similarly, while majorities in Gen Z and the Millennial generation say government should do more to solve problems, rather than that government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals, Gen Xers and Boomers are more evenly divided on this issue. For their part, most Silents would like to see a less activist government.

When it comes to views on race, the two younger generations are more likely than older generations to say that blacks are treated less fairly than whites in the United States today. And they are much more likely than their elders to approve of NFL players kneeling during the national anthem as a sign of protest.

This part is quite funny to me:

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The youngest generation is also the most likely to say forms or online profiles that ask about a person’s gender should include options other than “man” or “woman.” Roughly six-in-ten Gen Zers (59%) hold this view, compared with half of Millennials and four-in-ten or fewer Gen Xers, Boomers and Silents.

How about simply not asking the question about gender at all? This is how gender-obsessed people are: even when trying to get past the traditional gender dichotomy, they think that the solution is to include even more genders instead of ignoring the concept!

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In addition, the youngest Republicans stand apart in their views on the role of government and the causes of climate change. Gen Z Republicans are much more likely than Republicans in older generations to say government should do more to solve problems. And they are less likely than their older counterparts to attribute the earth’s warming temperatures to natural patterns, as opposed to human activity.

Let's be clear here: it is not "human activity" that has caused global warming, it is WESTERN activity. Pre-colonial non-Western human activity could have continued for another thousand years with no danger to climate whatsoever.

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Slightly older but still relevant research:

www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

Latest research:

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

WE WILL REPLACE YOU!

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More demography-sorted attitude stats!

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n2801y1hk9/econTabReport.pdf

Check out Table 2E in particular.

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While we have spoken of the importance of concentrating on demographically flipping Texas (as well as other states with significant numbers of electoral votes), another approach that some leftists have been working on is to cut out the Electoral College, an approach which certainly has rightists worried:

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/432014-ex-maine-gop-governor-says-white-people-wont-get-anything-to-say-if

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Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) said Tuesday that eliminating the Electoral College and electing a president based on the national popular vote would thwart the voice of white people.

"Actually, what would happen if they do what they say they’re going to, white people will not have anything to say," LePage, who served as governor from 2011 to 2019, said on the Maine radio station WVOM. "It’s only going to be the minorities that would elect. It would be California, Texas, Florida."

The former Republican governor made the comments as he discussed a bill currently being considered in the Maine legislature that would let Maine join other states seeking to bypass the Electoral college and award its electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote nationwide.

The state's Veterans and Legal Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on the national popular vote bill, which was sponsored by state Sen. Troy Jackson (D), on Friday, according to the Maine Beacon.
...
The comments from LePage came the same week Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) said he would sign a measure to let his state bypass the Electoral College in favor of the national popular vote.

Colorado is set to become the 12th state, in addition to Washington, D.C., to join a National Popular Vote interstate compact that wants to award its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the popular vote.

The compact cannot go into effect until the coalition includes states that accumulate at least 270 electoral votes. States included in the coalition would award their electoral votes en masse to the candidate who wins the national popular vote if it were to go into effect.

I should emphasize that these two approaches are not mutually obstructional, therefore both should be pursued simultaneously.

Further information:

www.nationalpopularvote.com/

As for LePage, he has spoken before about other issues which trouble him:

www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/maine-governor-drug-dealers-often-impregnate-young-white-girl-n492501

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyXWAhUrm7U

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On the topic of Texas: I recently reconnected with a friend who lives over there. Voting came up, and he told me that Texas would of became a Blue state a long time ago if it weren't for gerrymandering and the few people who show up to vote, as Texas has one of the lowest voter turnouts in the country with most of those voters being Republicans, harassing non-GOP looking voters outside of the voting booths.

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There's a bill coming to Congress: HR 1 : the For The People Act of 2019, that's supposed to fight gerrymandering and lower the voting age to 16 among other things. That blue shift could be coming a little faster.

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Yes:

www.huffpost.com/entry/ayanna-pressley-lower-voting-age_n_5c8014b0e4b020b54d8194fd

I am liking Pressley more and more.

"That blue shift could be coming a little faster."

OK, so now 2062 instead of 2064. That is still too slow. More must be done.

Some people seem to think Puerto Rican statehood would help us, but others think the opposite. Any input here? Would Puerto Rico be a Blue state if given statehood?

www.tcpalm.com/story/news/local/florida-voices/2018/08/16/could-new-arrivals-puerto-rico-make-florida-blue-state/911228002/

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A small step:

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/8/house-votes-favor-illegal-immigrant-voting/

Unfortunately in its current form this only applies to local elections. This needs to be expanded to federal elections.

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http://www.unz.com/anepigone/teenage-white-males-id-as-gop-by-21-margin/

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On that account it is worth noting that in the survey, white males under the age of 18 are significantly more Republican than white males aged 18-29 are (67% to 53% in a two-way split, respectively).

And it is even worse than it looks, because the trend is rightward drift with increasing age. So these teens will be even Redder as time goes by.

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Support for sidelining the Electoral College spreads steadily:

www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725616541/nevada-poised-to-become-15th-state-to-ditch-electoral-college

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With a state Senate vote Tuesday, Nevada is close to becoming the latest state to drop the traditional practice of awarding all its electors to the presidential candidate who won the state. Instead, Nevada would award its six electors to whomever receives the most votes across the entire country.

According to the National Popular Vote organization, which oversees efforts to persuade states to join the compact, 14 states and the District of Columbia have agreed to pledge their 189 electors to the winner of the national popular vote — regardless of which candidate won the state. Nevada's electoral votes would bring the total to 195. Once 270 electors are pledged, the compact would kick in.
...
Nevada's Senate voted 12-8 to join the agreement, entirely along party lines. Every Republican voted against the proposal. Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, has not indicated whether he will sign the measure into law.

As NPR has reported, the popular vote movement seems to be gathering steam. In February, 11 states were on board. Since then, Colorado, Delaware and New Mexico have signed on.

Could it be in place before the 2020 election?

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90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2020, 12:18:50 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

Texas nearing flipping point?

www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-surpass-white-residents/

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The gap between Texas’ Hispanic and white populations continued to narrow last year when the state gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident.

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.
...
The estimates come as lawmakers begin to sharpen their focus on the 2021 redistricting cycle, when they’ll have to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative maps to account for population growth. And they highlight the extent to which the demographics of the state continue to shift against the Republican Party.

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https://www.brookings.edu/research/less-than-half-of-us-children-under-15-are-white-census-shows/





Too slow! If you calculate the differences per decade, the rate of Blueshift was actually fastest in the 90s (by no coincidence the most positive decade in living memory), but slowing down with the post-9/11 era. Unlike some demographers who look only at the heights of the graphs and hence think there is nothing to worry about, I always look at gradients. If the gradient is becoming less steep over time, it could eventually be leading to a turning point (ICE?). That is what worries me.

Perhaps this could speed things up slightly:

www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/oas-venezuela-migration-largest-world-2020-190628174012682.html

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The Venezuelan exodus may exceed eight million people by the end of next year, which would make it the largest migration crisis in the world, according to a special working group of the Organization of American States (OAS).

The group's projection puts the exodus between 7.5 million and 8.2 million in 2020, far surpassing the 6.7 million people who in eight years have fled Syria.

Hopefully they consider migrating to the US.

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https://uswhiteclock.org/

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Can we make it fast enough?

thehill.com/opinion/campaign/451702-texas-may-cost-trump-2020

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There is a significant and growing probability that Texas will become the most consequential swing state in presidential and senatorial elections to come. A campaign in the Lone Star State could cost President Trump the White House next year, even if Texas voters will ultimately choose him.

A powerful combination of demographic forces are propelling Texas from one of the reddest states in the union into a swing state. Democrats will likely make an outside play in Texas ahead of 2020, along with a full run for its projected 41 electoral votes. Texas also stands to gain three seats in Congress after the next census, making it a crucial state for both parties.

Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.

Immigration has already had a very tangible impact on Texas politics. While illegal immigrants cannot vote, their children born in the United States are indeed citizens and make up a significant share of the new generation of voters in the southern state. There are around 35 percent of Texans under the age of 18 who are the children of immigrants, a figure that has nearly doubled in the last 30 years. This carries weight.

Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.

With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted.

Over the next year, Trump and his surrogates will be forced to spend more time campaigning in Texas, which will diminish time spent on the ground in other crucial swing states. Ultimately, this could be a death knell for the campaign. A major reason Trump won in 2016 was due to his critical time investment in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He spent around 50 percent more time in these battleground states than Hillary Clinton did. A diversion of time and money campaigning in Texas over the next 15 months could deal a fatal blow to high hopes for a second term.

Consider the margins in 2016 to see how razor thin the next election may be. Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes, Wisconsin by 23,000 votes, and Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes. These were all margins of less than 1 percent. Democrats need to take back all three states to win 2020, and whoever gets the nomination will pour immense energy and resources into each, which Trump will need to reciprocate. Any diversion of the large but finite campaign resources to shore up a traditional red state like Texas will cut into the ability of Trump to win key swing states.

Moreover, Texas is not just any state. As the second largest in the nation, by both population and land area, it is an expensive state in which to run a full campaign. Just ask O’Rourke and Cruz. The two combined spent nearly $125 million on their 2018 Senate campaigns, with O’Rourke outpacing Cruz by over 50 percent. Furthermore, outside donations and spending did not just impact the midterm Senate race, with donors also sending millions of dollars into suddenly competitive House races.

Republicans took note of the sheer volume of Texas votes that Democrats attracted in the last cycle. A Republican affiliated group, Engage Texas, is spending $25 million to register and turn out red voters. Considering the Trump campaign spent $325 million for 2016, the implications of such a drain of resources are clear well before the general election race begins.

Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018 midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas.

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This is good:

www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/07/03/h-1b-lobbyist-u-s-critics-are-racist-for-opposing-stealth-transfer-of-college-grad-jobs-to-indian-migrants/
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Lobbyists working for thousands of Indian contract workers are promising to overwhelm GOP Sen. Rand Paul’s opposition to a bill which puts many Indian temporary workers on a fast-track to permanent green cards.

“We have lots and lots of doctors in Kentucky, both in Louisville and in Lexington, and in other cities around Kentucky, who can all express how important this bill is to them, and how they literally can’t afford to be doctors anymore,” said Leon Fresco, a former congressional staffer who is quarterbacking the contract workers’ campaign for green cards.
...
Fresco’s bill is titled “Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants,” and it would abolish the “country caps” which diversify the annual award of 140,000 green cards to the various foreign nationals of American companies.

The prime beneficiaries of the “country cap” bill are the many Indian contract-workers who arrived on temporary H-1B visas, and who then avoided going home by getting their employers to nominate them for green cards. At least 200,000 Indians have already obtained green cards via the employer process during the last decade.

But the huge number of Indian who volunteered to take Americans’ jobs via the H-1B visas are jammed by the “country cap” on green cards for Indians. Perhaps 300,000 resident Indian contract-workers and 300,000 family members are waiting in several backlogged lines for roughly 23,000 green cards issued to Indians each year.

If Lee’s bill become law, the Indian share of the employer green-cards could quickly quadruple to at least 100,000 cards a year, or 1 million per decade.

That offer of at least 75,000 extra green cards per year would create a huge incentive for more young Indian graduates to take U.S. jobs at very low wages.

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www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/07/12/house-gop-vote-indian-outsourcing-threatens-gops-senate-majority/#

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The legislation, HR.1044, claims to promote fairness for high-skilled contract-workers, dubbed “immigrants” by the advocates. The bill removes “country caps” which limit Indians’ share of the 120,000 green-cards awarded each year to employees nominated by their companies. That change would allow Indians to get roughly 100,000 green cards each year, up from roughly 23,000. The change would allow the 300,000 Indian workers — and their 300,00 family members — get on a fast track to green cards, citizenship, and the voting booth.
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In the medium term– by 2030 — the GOP will also lose more seats as the Indian migrants become citizens and vote Democratic.

The HR.1044 legislation will add roughly 600,000 Indian voters to the rolls during the next 10 years. Indians are highly likely to donate to Democratic causes and to vote Democratic. For example, the chief Senate sponsor of the bill is Sen. Kamala Harris, whose mother is Indian.

Roughly 77 percent of Indians supported Democratic candidates in 2016, while only 16 percent said they voted for President Donald Trump, according to a post-election survey funded by the National Science Foundation.

A growing population of skilled migrants in a district also tends to pull American-born voters into the Democratic camp, said an April 2018 study. “Our strongest and most significant finding is that an increase in high-skilled immigrants as a share of the local population is associated with a strong and significant decrease in the vote share for the Republican Party,” said the report, authored by pro-migration economist Giovanni Peri, Anna Maria Mayda, a Georgetown University professor now at the U.S. State Department, and Walter Steingress, an economist at the Bank of Canada.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2020, 12:26:01 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

Can it happen so soon?

newrepublic.com/article/154723/texas-bracing-blue-wave-2020-yes-texas

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In what giddy Democrats are calling “the Texodus,” four Republican members of Congress announced, in short order, that they won’t be running for reelection in 2020; three of their seats, all in the suburbs, will likely go Democratic, adding to the two they took from Republicans in 2018. “We could see other representatives step away too,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Why would you go into a knockdown, drag-out fight when you’re either going to lose next time, or soon afterward?”
...
And then there was President Trump and the terrorism in El Paso. By 2022, Latino Texans are projected to outnumber whites, and the rising majority won’t soon forget the mass murder by a gunman, apparently inspired by Trump’s rhetoric, who took advantage of the state’s insanely lax gun laws. Nor will it forget the way the president put a target on the city’s back, falsely claiming in this year’s State of the Union that El Paso was “one of our nation’s most dangerous cities” before the border barriers went up, then amplifying the message in a rally there a few weeks later. “Murders, murders, murders!” Trump cried out as he talked about immigrants, while his fans chanted, “Build the wall!”
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Cal Jillson, a venerable political scientist at Southern Methodist University, is among those who think this president has accelerated the Democratic comeback in Texas. “My sense pre-Trump was that there were demographic dynamics that were going to bring two-party competition at some point,” he said. “I thought it would take another 15 to 20 years. But Trump has brought all that forward. It’s happening much more quickly.”
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nobody in Texas, aside from a few blinkered Republicans, believes that Democrats won’t continue to loosen the Republican stranglehold in 2020. At least half a dozen Republican seats in Congress will be ripe for the taking, and Democrats have a realistic chance of capturing the nine Republican seats in the state House they need to gain a majority—just in time for the next round of redistricting in 2021. If they regain a toehold of power in Austin, and can prevent Republicans from having total control over gerrymandering, Democrats could turn Texas blue in a hurry; if not, it’ll probably be a more gradual process over the next decade, with strict voter ID and other forms of suppression still intact, and districts artificially tilted in Republicans’ favor.

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Trump's behaviour might actually be helping us:

news.yahoo.com/trumps-fake-accent-angers-asian-201830232.html

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When Amanda Berg heard reports that President Donald Trump mocked the accents of the leaders of South Korea and Japan at a recent fundraiser, it brought back painful memories from her childhood.

Berg, a Korean American who grew up in Fort Collins, Colorado, recalled kids doing the "stereotypical pulling at the eyes and the mocking accent." It made her feel like she was a foreigner in her own community.

Berg, a registered Democrat, is among a growing and crucial bloc of Asian American voters leaning further to the left in the age of Trump, and his stunt, reported by the New York Post, angered her and many others.
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The Asian American voting-age population has more than doubled in the past two decades, leaping from 4.3 million in 1998 to 11.1 million in 2018 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A majority of those new voters lean Democratic.

By 2016, some Asian ethnic groups that had leaned Republican shifted into the Democratic camp, said Natalie Masuoka, an associate professor of political science and Asian American studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. A larger share of Asian American Republicans voted for John McCain in 2008 than for Trump in 2016.

A Pew Research Center survey said 53% of Asian American registered voters in 1998 identified with the Democratic Party. That figure rose to 65% in 2017.
...
"He's willing to use Asian stereotypes, Asian accents in his public speeches," Masuoka said. "In that way ... the way Americans are talking about race is now shifting possibly back to what historically was effective before the civil rights revolution" — explicit and sometimes offensive talk about race.

The New York Post reported that Trump imitated South Korea President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, both close U.S. allies, at a fundraiser in the Hamptons this month. Trump used a fake accent to boast about Moon relenting in negotiations over the costs of U.S. military aid to South Korea and when rehashing talks with Abe had about trade tariffs, according to the newspaper.

Trump has imitated Asian people before. At an August 2015 campaign rally in Iowa, he talked about his ability to deal with Asian negotiators and used broken English, saying, "When these people walk into the room ... they say 'We want deal!'"

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Data:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OXOCps4WHRKX90ArDbxQoRGyz9zcfkwJPWm45tmDE2M/edit#gid=0

Additional information:

www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/21/u-s-counties-majority-nonwhite/

Apparel:



Purchase here:

www.wewillreplaceyou.com/

I want to see these hats become more common than MAGA hats before the 2020 election season begins. Please share widely!

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Texas also continues to look more and more like a swing state:

www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/univision-news-poll-democrats-surge-in-texas-no-longer-a-safe-state-for-trump-in-2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxUAi-yhreU

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Distribution matters:

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-migration-patterns-should-terrify-gop/598153/

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Liberals in America have a density problem. Across the country, Democrats dominate in cities, racking up excessive margins in urban cores while narrowly losing in suburban districts and sparser states. Because of their uneven distribution of votes, the party consistently loses federal elections despite winning the popular vote.

The most famous case was in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election despite her 2.4-million-vote margin. Clinton carried Manhattan and Brooklyn by approximately 1 million ballots—more than Donald Trump’s margins of victory in the states of Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania combined.
...
Democrats can blame the Electoral College for these losses—as they should. But according to the Stanford political scientist Jonathan Rodden’s new book, Why Cities Lose, the problem isn’t just the districting. It’s the density. All over the world, liberal, college-educated voters pack into cities, where they dilute their own voting power through excessive concentration. “Underrepresentation of the urban left in national legislatures and governments has been a basic feature of all industrialized countries that use winner-take-all elections,” he writes.

So just imagine what would happen to the American political picture if more Democrats moved out of their excessively liberal enclaves to redistribute themselves more evenly across the vast expanse of Red America?
...
Two weeks ago, I published an article on what I called the urban exodus. More specifically, it is a blue urban exodus, as left-leaning metros in blue states are losing population. The New York City metro area is shrinking by 277 people every day. Other areas bleeding thousands of net movers each year include Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, Chicago, Boston, and Baltimore—all in states that routinely vote for Democrats by wide margins.

These movers are U-Hauling to ruddier states in the South and West. The five fastest-growing metros of the past few years—Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, and Orlando, Florida—are in states won by Trump. The other metro areas with a population of at least 1 million that grew by at least 1.5 percent last year were Las Vegas; Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; Charlotte, North Carolina; San Antonio; Tampa, Florida; and Nashville, Tennessee. All of those metros are in red or purple states.
...
This drip-drip-drip of young residents trickling down into red-state suburbs is helping to turn southern metros into Democratic strongholds. (Of course, migration isn’t the only factor pushing these metros leftward, but more on that later.) In Texas, Democrats’ advantage in the five counties representing Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin (the “Texas Five” in the graph below) grew from 130,000 in the 2012 presidential election to nearly 800,000 in the 2018 Senate election.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-nr8Gp55nQ

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www.alternet.org/2019/10/republicans-realize-theyre-losing-ground-in-texas-the-base-is-shrinking-period/

Quote
Texas is still a red state, but at this point, it’s light red rather than deep red. The fact that Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by a mere 2% in the 2018 midterms was a troubling sign for the Texas GOP, and in a report for Axios, journalist Alexi McCammond notes that Lone Star Republicans are troubled by the departure of six members of the U.S. House of Representatives who won’t be seeking reelection in Texas in 2020.

“The 2018 midterms spooked Texas Republicans after they lost two congressional seats, saw closer-than-expected margins in a number of other races, and watched Beto O’Rourke surf a blue wave built in part on the state’s shifting demographics,” McCammond notes. And now, according to McCammond, “the six-pack of GOP retirements in one cycle is hard to ignore.”

One of those departures is Rep. Will Hurd, the only African-American Republican in the House of Representatives. McCammond quotes a dire warning from Hurd about the GOP: “The base is shrinking. Period. End of story.”

Until Democrats start winning more statewide races in Texas, it will be premature to describe Texas as a swing state. Republicans still have the advantage in Texas’ statewide races, but as O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign shows, that advantage is shrinking. And in U.S. House races, Democrats can perform quite well in parts of Texas — which is why, as McCammond reports, the GOP is aggressively trying to register more Republican voters in the Lone Star State.

A GOP strategist in Texas, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Axios, “We need a new Republican Party because the one we have is getting our asses kicked in House races.”

In the 2000s, many Democratic strategists viewed Texas as a lost cause for their party when it came to statewide races. But times have changed. And the 2018 midterms made it clear that President Donald Trump is not universally loved in that state.
McCammond concludes the Axios article by noting how increasingly bullish Democratic strategists are on their prospects in Texas. “It’s truly a sign of the times that Democrats think Texas in 2020 could mimic California in 2018 — where the party picked up seven GOP seats and helped Dems win back the House, ” McCammond reports.

New site:

texasbluestate.com/



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https://axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html

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www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/record-32-million-hispanics-ready-to-vote-largest-minority-in-2020

Quote
The percentage of Hispanics eligible to vote in the upcoming 2020 presidential election has surged nearly 20% since 2016 when Hillary Clinton took 66% of the Latino vote.
...
In an analysis of the federal data, the Pew Research Center said that there are a “record” 32 million Latinos eligible to vote in 2020. That is an increase from 27.3 million in 2016.

“The 2020 election will mark the first time that Hispanics will be the largest racial and ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters,” said Pew’s FactTank.

The growth in Hispanic voters comes as a result of the surge in the Latino population.

It was about 60 million in 2018, up from 47.8 million in 2008. Hispanics make up 18% of the U.S. population, up from 5% in 1970, said Pew.

The group has been divided over President Trump and his efforts to end illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border. Overall, Hispanics do not support the president.

In 2016, he won about one-third of the Hispanic vote, but recent surveys show that dropping to one-fifth as the 2020 election nears.



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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Parker-For-non-whites-Trumpism-has-been-a-14299124.php

---

A preview of our enemies' most likely countermeasure as Demographic Blueshift proceeds:

vdare.com/articles/separating-illinois-from-cook-county-would-help-save-the-historic-american-nation

Quote
Illinois is one of the safest Democrat states in presidential elections. Hillary Clinton crushed Donald Trump in 2016, 55.4 percent to 39.4. But Clinton’s margin of victory came from Cook County, where she beat Trump by nearly 1.1 million votes. [2016 Illinois Presidential Election Results, Politico, December 12, 2016] There, Clinton shellacked Trump by more than 50 points, 74.4-21.4.

Outside Cook County though, Clinton pulled just 1.45 million votes—more than 200,000 fewer than Trump’s nearly 1.7 million.

Consider what those figures would mean for Trump if Illinois had split before the 2020 presidential election.

General consensus is, a Trump win next year requires one of these three states that he won in 2016 by using the Sailer Strategy and mobilizing working class whites: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

Although conventional wisdom might say Ohio, Florida and Arizona are swing states, they are probably safe. Trump won Ohio by 8.13 percentage points; it’s reddening. In 2018, a down-year for Republicans, former Florida Governor Rick Scott unseated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in last year’s Senate election. Meanwhile, former Rep. Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida over race-baiting Democrat Andrew Gillum. And the last Democrat to win Arizona in a presidential election without a serious Third Party challenger was Harry Truman in 1948.

If Trump holds Nebraska’s and Maine’s second congressional districts, he has 260 electoral votes. Now, add “New Illinois” to the mix. Trump would need only one of the big four—”New Illinois,” Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania—for an easy victory and re-election. In 2016, his margin of victory in an Illinois sans Cook County would have been far better than it was in any of the three “Blue Wall” states he flipped.

This is nothing but gerrymandering on an enlarged scale!

If the Electoral College were abolished, none of this would matter, of course (which is why this should be done ASAP). But so long as the Electoral College is still around, we must make sure that such initiatives to re-draw state boundaries in ways designed to help Red candidates fail to get off the ground.

---

If we manage to flip Texas, however, then rightists will start calling for abolishing the Electoral College.

Here is a leftist really thinking outside the box:

www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/08/21/we-used-to-count-black-americans-as-35-of-a-person-instead-of-reparations-give-them-53-of-a-vote/

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We know we are succeeding when we are annoying Coulter:

www.huffpost.com/entry/abrar-omeish-ghazala-hashmi-virginia-elections_n_5dc24165e4b08b735d61f96d

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tojyzIZhlpE

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« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 12:30:12 am by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2020, 12:40:42 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

www.waynedupree.com/shia-muslim-march-tlaib-district/

Quote
Thousands of Shia Muslims took to the streets of Dearborn, reportedly in Rashida Tlaib’s district, and marched.
...
Because of the racial breakdowns, that district is so reliably Democratic that Republicans don’t even bother running for its empty seat in Congress.

All of the US could be like this. We are here to make it so.



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Another reminder that Demographic Blueshift is not just about improving the quality of the voting population, but also about providing access to better candidates:

www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/jessica-cisneros-2020s-aoc-215200571.html

Quote
When people ask me, "Why did you become an immigration attorney?" it's because of that, the fact that I was born into this very cross-cultural environment, this unique area of the country right on the border. My elementary school was right next to the river, and in the mornings, we could see families crossing into the United States. I remember saying I could not spot a difference between a mom and her child, and me and my mom. I know that my citizenship is a privilege. To many folks who are on the border, we know our lives could've been very different had we been born five minutes south of where we were.

As you can imagine, being an immigration attorney under Trump was a very difficult and heartbreaking experience. You go in there and the odds are already stacked against you, but under the Trump administration, it just felt like it was almost impossible to win cases and keep families together. It got to the point where I was trying to console one too many families. I thought, if they keep telling me that the law is a problem, then I'm going to go to Congress and change it.

Now I'm still making my case, but instead of being in a courtroom in front of a judge, I'm in a district and the voters are the judges.

I was nominated to run for office by my high school teacher; I think he saw Justice Democrats recruiting and thought of me. I got a call from Justice Democrats, and they asked about my roots to my community and what I believed we should be doing here in South Texas.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9j_dLT0WDQ



Buy merchandise here:

www.wewillreplaceyou.com/product-category/all/

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlJg2h2NrTM

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I am a bit confused. You say that ethnicity does not matter, but why do demographic trends seem to show predominantly “non white” ethnicities voting left wing.

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Because they are the victims of "white" racism, therefore they are more likely to vote for the party they perceive as more sincerely interested in defending them. This is the result not of ethnicity mattering, but of racists behaving as if ethnicity mattered.

Here is Stacey Abrams explaining the same point:

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If ethnicity itself did matter (in the biological sense), then we should expect a "non-white" ethnicity more closely ancestrally related to "whites" voting more like "whites" than like a more ancestrally distant "non-white" ethnicity. For example, we should expect Americans of Palestinian ancestry (who are far more closely ancestrally related to Anglos than to Bantus):

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voting more like "whites" than like "blacks". But in reality, they vote more like "blacks", because they have a more similar historical experience as victims of Western colonialism.

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Ah now I see. I recall a post on the main blog where a rightist’s claim that all “non whites” behave tribally was refuted with an example of Mexicans and Arabs, both groups with ”non white” ancestry, opposing the Iraq War.

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Yes. Which is not to say that rightists of one "non-white" ethnicity do not display bigotry towards another "non-white" ethnicities. But when they do, it is emphatically not because of tribalism, but because of Eurocentrism (ie. thinking that by doing so they can make themselves appear "whiter"). And they also display bigotry towards their own ethnicity for the same reason. This is what we are here to change.

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And now for an encouraging chart:

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Demographic Blueshift works for more than just votes. Hopefully among under-18s Muslims are already viewed more positively than Jews.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2020, 12:49:51 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

Another way Demographic Blueshift works:

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/study-finds-immigration-will-shift-electoral-college-favor-democrats-108131

Quote
A new analysis finds that immigration will dramatically reshape the Electoral College map in favor of the Democratic Party after completion of the 2020 census.

Rising immigrant populations around the United States will result in several solidly Democratic states gaining more seats in the House of Representatives at the expense of solidly Republican states, the study by the Center for Immigration Studies finds. The shift ultimately will give the Democratic Party more influence in the Electoral College, CIS says.
...
Of the 26 seats predicted to shift, 24 are expected to be taken away from states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Ohio is expected to lose three seats; Pennsylvania and Michigan likely will lose two; and 18 states likely will lose one seat: Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, according to the study.

California, already a behemoth of the Electoral College, is predicted to gain 11 seats after the 2020 census is completed. New York likely will gain four more seats. New Jersey likely will come out with two more seats, and Massachusetts and Illinois likely will each gain one more seat.

The only traditionally red state to see gains is Texas, which is expected to notch four more House seats. Florida, which is considered a swing state but trends toward the GOP, will earn three more seats, under the CIS analysis. Rhode Island and Minnesota are expected to lose one congressional district each.

And once we flip Texas too (plus Florida?), then we are all set.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl9ORX8KSuQ

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www.wsj.com/articles/demographic-shift-poised-to-test-trumps-2020-strategy-11578047402

Quote
“President Trump’s 2020 election strategy relies largely on the white, working-class base that he excited in 2016. But he faces a demographic challenge: The electorate has changed since he was last on the ballot in ways likely to benefit Democrats,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Working-class, white voters are projected to decline by 2.3 percentage points nationally as a share of eligible voters, compared with the last election, because they are older and therefore dying at a faster rate than are Democratic groups. As those voters pass on, they are most likely to be replaced by those from minority groups or young, white voters with college degrees—groups that lean Democratic.”

“That means Mr. Trump will have to coax more votes from a shrinking base—or else find more votes in other parts of the electorate.”

Of course I am emphatically not saying we have the 2020 election in the bag, especially with Red countermeasures in play.

But if Trump does lose, hopefully the next Red candidate will return to the pre-Trump approach of trying to appeal more broadly, which might help move the entire political discussion slightly closer back to sanity.

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Some nice pictures:

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We are too concentrated in small areas!

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Even within Blue states, many counties are Red. We should encourage intra-state migration from Blue counties into Red counties.

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Some rightists are more pessimistic than we are optimistic about our strategy:

www.americanfreedomunion.com/letters-to-the-editor-44/

Quote
The GOP is Finished
Demographics will determine everything.

Trump carried Georgia by only 3% in 2016; Hillary received 47%. Running for governor, Stacey Abrams – who is far more radical and openly White-hating than Clinton or Sanders – got 48.5% two years later, thereby cutting Trump’s margin in half.

Trump won’t carry Georgia in 2020 and neither will any other potential GOP nominee.

Trump carried Florida by a whisker. Florida enfranchised 1.4 million felons by referendum in the last election. Hundreds of thousands of these people will be voting Democrat by a margin of 9 to 1.

3,000 Puerto Ricans per day swarmed into Florida for many months in the wake of the 2017 hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. Thanks to our first “globalist” president, William McKinley, they are all “U.S. citizens” and they will be voting in Florida in 2020. The hundreds of thousands of felons plus several hundred thousand Puerto Ricans plus other immigrants plus newly matured non-Whites equals a Democrat landslide victory in Florida.

The GOP will never carry Florida again – not merely for the presidency but for any state-wide race. Florida is the new California.

Beto O’Rourke, running as an avowed “progressive,” i.e., an open borders White-hating socialist, got 48.5% of the vote in Texas in 2018. In 2020 several hundred thousand more non-Whites will be voting in Texas and scores of thousands of old Whites who voted for Trump will be dead.

The GOP can write off Texas.

Trump carried several states by only a few thousand votes. Four more years of explosive non-White growth and White die-off will have extinguished any chance of the Republican Party carrying those states.

Georgia + Florida + Texas + the razor-thin victory states of 2016 = an inevitable victory for the Democrats in 2020.

And for every year thereafter.
It’s over.

Again, I do not encourage assuming we already have it in the bag. We can still lose 2020 if turnout is insufficient.

---

Quote
Why Texans Don’t Want Any More Californians

Migrants from the Golden State could change the character of their new homes.

In 2016, President Donald Trump swept the Republican primary with a simple message: Build a wall to keep out the immigrants. Today, a new anti-migration theme is sweeping the country: Build a wall to keep out the Californians.

But is the California Exodus real?

From one perspective, the answer is very clearly yes. In 2012, California gained 113,000 people on net through domestic and international migration. Last year, California lost 40,000 people on net to migration, according to its own demographers. The state still grew, thanks to births, but at the lowest rate on record. Now the U.S. state most synonymous with all varieties of growth—vegetal, technological, and human—is at the precipice of its first-ever population decline.

Thank God the population is declining in California, I cannot even recognize the city I grew up in anymore.... lol!

Quote
But now the state is at an inflection point, between its history as a ruby-red conservative stronghold and its future as a more mixed state with blue metros and red rural areas. In this context, the next SoCal family that U-Hauls into North Texas isn’t just some nice couple with different taste in barbecue; instead, they’re potentially the demographic straw that breaks the GOP’s back.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/the-truth-about-the-california-exodus/605833/

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Quote
Exclusive: Ahead of 2020 election, a 'Blue Wave' is rising in the cities, polling analysis shows

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As Republican President Donald Trump seeks a second term in November, Americans’ interest in voting is growing faster in large cities dominated by Democrats than in conservative rural areas, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos national opinion polls.
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exclusive-ahead-of-2020-election-a-blue-wave-is-rising-in-the-cities-polling-analysis-shows-idUSKBN20D1EG

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Also:

www.yahoo.com/news/trump-defense-red-state-bastion-090000866.html

Quote
(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump is on the defensive in Arizona, where he’s set to rally voters on Wednesday as an influx of new residents challenge the president’s hold on the Republican-dominated state.

Arizona’s expanding state economy and low unemployment should help Trump in a state he won by more than 3 percentage points in 2016, but there are significant warning signs for the president.
...
Arizona has been among the fastest growing states, threatening the GOP’s dominance. As of July 1, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated there were 7,278,717 residents, up 4.8% from July 2016.

The number of minorities, especially Hispanics, has been increasing and some estimates suggest that minorities will be in the majority by 2030. Minority voters are more likely to support Democrats.

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Jason Johnson on Roseanne Barr (Jew) being fired from ABC: A "Blue Wave" is coming:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL1DTibzuqo

This is what we have been saying all along! As demographics shift, even Jew owned networks have to superficially shift in a leftist direction in order to cater to their audience, out of fear of losing their market share!

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2020, 12:58:09 am »
OLD CONTENT contd.

www.yahoo.com/news/idaho-turning-little-blue-primary-142447120.html

Quote
BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho last year was the nation's fastest-growing state, with close to 37,000 new residents boosting its population to nearly 1.8 million.

In the past decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the deeply conservative state has seen a population jump of more than 200,000. Studies indicate many have come from liberal-leaning California, Oregon and Washington.

But are those new residents bringing blue-state politics? Or are they Republicans fleeing the coast for conservative Idaho?
...
“We've definitely seen some areas like Boise becoming bluer in the last few years,” she said. “More conservative voters are moving into Canyon County and northern Idaho.”

Yet Democrats see the possibility of a bluish tinge appearing in Idaho following its 2.1% population increase last year. The House, for example, went from 11 to 14 Democrats in the 2018 election. Democrats flipped four urban district seats, but lost an urban district in northern Idaho after the incumbent Democrat ran for governor.

Voter-driven ballot initiatives have also become a major focus in the state. After years of inaction by Republican lawmakers, Idaho residents in 2018 with 62% approved an initiative expanding Medicaid, a move opposed by conservative lawmakers.

In response, Republicans in the House and Senate last year tried to make the initiative process nearly impossible, so they could head off future left-leaning measures such as raising the minimum wage and legalizing marijuana. But Republican Gov. Brad Little vetoed the legislation amid concerns a federal court could rule such restrictions unconstitutional and dictate the state's initiative process.

Overall, though, Republicans hold all five statewide elected offices, including governor, and hold super-majorities in both the Idaho House and Senate. Both of Idaho's U.S. House seats and both U.S. Senate seats are also occupied by Republicans.

Democratic House Minority Leader Ilana Rubel of Boise said she's not sure which way the "in-migration is tilting," but she thinks it will be a wash.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsvHiEAv1rY

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www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708
Quote
Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November
...
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis — conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.

“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
...
Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels — another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be higher in red areas.
...
Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus could also ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where GOP leaders have been pulling back on aggressive defenses. The study looked at total anticipated deaths on a statewide basis, which accounted for spiraling projections of the virus in densely populated urban areas that are home to more Democrats.

Still, there are caveats beyond the death figures used: Researchers used national fatality rates because deaths by state were scant when they started. They similarly applied national percentages of voters by age, not state-by-state figures. But Johnson noted that could actually understate effects in places like Florida, where the GOP relies more heavily on older voters.

https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vwqbdMVvI

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Michelle Obama gets it:

www.yahoo.com/news/michelle-obama-mad-black-voters-140149775.html

Quote
she talks about how painful it is to her that black voters didn’t turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton, calling the decision not to vote more painful to her than those who voted for Trump.

“It takes some energy to go high, and we were exhausted from it. Because when you are the first black anything…” she said, referencing anecdotes from her Becoming book. “So the day I left the White House and I write about how painful it was to sit on that [inauguration] stage. A lot of our folks didn’t vote. It was almost like a slap in the face.”

“I understand the people who voted for Trump,” she continued. “The people who didn’t vote at all, the young people, the women, that’s when you think, man, people think this is a game. It wasn’t just in this election. Every midterm. Every time Barack didn’t get the Congress he needed, that was because our folks didn’t show up. After all that work, they just couldn’t be bothered to vote at all. That’s my trauma.”

Demographic Blueshift without turnout is meaningless.

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Our enemies' despair is our best encouragement:

vdare.com/articles/ga-about-to-turn-blue-because-of-immigration-why-are-gov-brian-kemp-gop-elite-except-for-sen-perdue-asleep

Quote
A GOP poll has Trump leading Joe Biden by just one point in a formerly solid red state [Internal GOP poll points to troubling signs for Georgia Republicans, by Greg Bluestein, The Atlanta-Journal Constitution, May 1, 2020]. But the Stupid Party seems wedded to the crazy idea that inside every immigrant is a Republican waiting to get out.

“The demographic moves against us,” Perdue told supporters in a leaked off-the-record phone call late last week [GOP senator gives activists grim 2020 assessment amid fears over holding Senate, by Alex Rogers and Manu Raju, CNN, April 29, 2020].
...
When Perdue won in 2014 by 8 points, 74 percent of whites voted for him. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp won the same proportion of whites in 2018, yet only beat Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams by a little more than 1 point.

That’s because the electorate went from 64 percent white to 60 percent in just four years, and the number of white registered voters has dropped from 62 percent in 2016 to 59 today.

Hispanic and Asian immigrants, the only two groups growing in registered voters, drove the shift in such places as Gwinnett County, once a GOP fortress [Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020 elections, by Mark Niesse, The Atlanta-Journal Constitution, February 11, 2020].

Recent census data show that the county’s white population has declined 3.4 percentage points since 2010, while the nonwhite population jumped more than 7 percentage points [Gwinnett’s nonwhite populations continue to grow, Census says, by Amanda C. Coyne, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 21, 2019].

The county is now just 39 percent white, basically thanks to immigration: 25 percent of its residents are foreign-born. In 1980, when the county was 96 percent white, less than 2 percent were foreign born [Duluth’s ‘Demographic Destiny Train’, by Adina Solomon, Curbed, November 13, 2019].

Mitt Romney won Gwinnett by almost 10 points in 2012. But just four years later, the walls came tumbling down. Hillary Clinton won Gwinnett, as did Stacey Abrams in 2018—and not by a thin margin. She crushed Kemp by 14 points there in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats eagerly champion the demographic change. Once immigration drives enough whites from the state and the bitter-enders are outnumbered, it’s over for the Party of Trump.

“In every way, that benefits the Democratic Party,” said Scott Hogan, the Democratic Party’s executive director. “Georgia is in play. The state is going to go blue. It’s just a matter of when” [Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020 elections, by Mark Niesse, February 11, 2020].

Still, sooner is better than later.

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Another reason we need as much Demographic Blueshift as possible as quickly as possible:

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We can do it (provided we get turnout)!

www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/immigration/item/32675-will-9-new-hispanics-for-every-1-new-white-in-texas-end-gop-presidential-chances

Quote
Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just predicted that the national GOP is headed for the “waste bin of history” because our whole country is becoming like his Golden State. Now come new census estimates that may prove him a prophet: Texas, a must-win state for Republicans in presidential elections, is experiencing demographic change that will eventually turn it left.

Non-Hispanic whites are currently still a plurality in Texas. But this will soon change owing to, among other demographic phenomena, the state having gained nine new Hispanics for every one new non-Hispanic white in 2018. As the Texas Tribune reports:

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.

The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year. Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010. The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time period.

Asian-descent Texans’ population has actually increased the most percentagewise — 49 percent since 2010. Other major groups’ percentage increases since that year are Hispanics, 20; blacks, 19; and whites, 4.

This is significant not just because it perhaps means a more interesting panoply of restaurants, but because racial/ethnic identification strongly correlates with voting patterns. While Republicans derive approximately 90 percent of their votes from non-Hispanic whites — a group whose population share is shrinking nationwide — the “minority” groups in question cast ballots for Democrats by about 70 to 90 percent margins.

This demographic change is particularly impactful in regard to Texas because it is a GOP must-win in presidential contests. Consider: The Democrats already have as sure wins three of the five states offering the most electoral votes: California, 55; New York, 29; and Illinois, 20. Add to that 104 total other sure-win states, and the Democrats have well more than half the number necessary, which is 270, to win presidential elections.

Moreover, add a decent percentage of Democrat-leaning states, and you’ll know why it has recently been said that the Republicans have “a narrow path to the White House.” Now, remove Texas from the GOP column, and, well, the Grand Old Party will be the Grand Dead Party.

I discuss this more in-depth in my 2012 piece “Does the GOP’s Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?” But here’s the simplest way to relate the truth in question: Without Texas, Donald Trump in 2016 and G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 would have lost. Another way of putting it is: The Republicans wouldn’t have won a presidential election in 30 years — not since 1988.

And they won’t win one ever again if Texas is flipped.
(Note here: For whatever it’s worth, some polls have shown Joe Biden leading President Trump in Texas.)

---

www.fastcompany.com/90521390/for-the-first-time-the-majority-of-people-under-16-in-america-are-nonwhite-and-hispanic

Quote
The numbers are in.

The Census Bureau has released its latest population estimates, which include data from 2019. And on the whole, it shows an aging white America and an increasingly diverse United States.

Here are some general insights:

Our nation is getting bigger: The total population hovered around 329 million in 2019, up from around 308 million in 2010.

Baby boomers are no longer babies: The 65-and-older population swelled by nearly 35% between 2010 and 2019, driven by the aging of baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. In part due to this, the median age of Americans rose from 37.2 years to 38.4 years. (The median age for non-Hispanic whites, in 2019, was 43.7 years, compared to 29.8 for Hispanics, 35 for Asians, and 32.3 for Black Americans.)

The U.S. is becoming more racially diverse: The U.S. population was about 60% non-Hispanic white in 2019, a record low for the country, and experts predict non-Hispanic whites will be a minority in 25 years. Meanwhile, Hispanic and Asian populations grew by 20% and 30%, respectively, from 2010 to 2019, and the Black population grew by 12%. While the white population grew by 4.3% compared to 2010, the number of non-Hispanic whites fell by more than half a million people from 2016 to 2019.

The face of America is changing fast: In 2019, for the first time ever, nonwhites and Hispanics were the majority for people under the age of 16, signaling a demographic shift that experts expect will continue over the coming decades.

25 years is too long. With a better immigration policy we can do it in a small fraction of this time.

---

We forgot about this!

us.yahoo.com/news/house-vote-making-dc-51st-104947242.html

Quote
Advocates of statehood say it's a long-overdue change for a city that lacks any voting representation in Congress.

NAACP President Derrick Johnson told USA TODAY in a phone interview it was an issue of "fairness" for the city's population.

"This has been a question that's been pushed for over 50 years," he said, even when the district was a majority-Black city. "This goes beyond just race. This goes to the fundamental issue of fair representation for all citizens of the United States."

Census Bureau data shows that 46.4% of the district's population is African American, 11.3% is Hispanic or Latino and 4.4% is Asian, and the district's population is larger than Wyoming and Vermont.

In a Friday press conference, Pelosi touted Friday’s vote as a move “long overdue” that would offer “justice” to the people living in D.C., allowing them equality to Americans across the country.

“The fact is, people in the District of Columbia pay taxes, fight our wars, risk their lives for our democracy. And yet, in this state, in this place, they have no vote in the House or the Senate, about whether we go to war and how those taxes are exacted,” Pelosi said.

In a speech on the House floor, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said the citizens in the nation's capital, which he noted was "historically one of our largest African American cities" had been "disenfranchised and shortchanged for too long."

President Barack Obama said in 2014 that he supported D.C. statehood, putting the district's "Taxation Without Representation" license plates on the presidential limousine.

There is support for statehood outside the district, too. National Democratic leaders voiced their support for D.C. statehood in a Twitter thread Thursday, with former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Kamala Harris, and others tweeting "DC should be a state. Pass it on."
...
"D.C. will never be a state," Trump told the New York Post. "You mean District of Columbia, a state? Why? So we can have two more Democratic — Democrat senators and five more congressmen? No thank you. That’ll never happen."

The Senate currently is split 53-47, the majority held by Republicans, and adding two D.C. senators would cut into the GOP advantage in the chamber.



90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2020, 01:05:20 am »
Latest census analysis:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-population-growth-has-been-driven-exclusively-by-minorities/ar-BB16kTl6

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491551/US-population-growth-driven-minorities-white-population-declining.html

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Frey adds: 'The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups.'

It is good to be ahead of schedule.

« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 03:17:56 pm by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2020, 12:59:15 am »
A reminder of why Demographic Blueshift is so important:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8538793/Trump-beating-Biden-white-male-voters-wont-say-accept-2020-results.html

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While Donald Trump continues to slip in the polls against Joe Biden, the president still remains ahead among two demographics – male and white voters, but the presumed Democratic nominee is still ahead in almost every other demographic.
...
when it comes to male voters, Trump is up by 5 percentage points, but among women voters, Biden leads the president by 9 points.

White voters are also much more likely to cast their ballot for Trump over Biden in the November elections – those with a college degree by a 3 per ent margin and without a degree by 9 percentage points.

Biden is ahead of Trump among all other races.

A massive 64 per cent of black voters say they would vote for Biden over Trump while the Democrat is ahead among Hispanic voters by 30 per cent.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2020, 03:17:35 am »
Hartmann focuses on gender:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooLudMy2OJg

Which is not to say, however, that gender is the most decisive factor (refer to the top left and middle right maps, as well as the asterisked text):

« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 03:26:04 am by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2020, 03:51:47 pm »
Our enemies, trying to figure out why they are losing, are forced to admit that their entire movement is based on delusion:

https://www.amren.com/news/2020/07/the-political-bankruptcy-of-american-white-nationalism/

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For obvious reasons, non-white immigration has always been an issue of paramount importance to the white racialist community. Such individuals therefore constitute the bulk of fervent anti-immigration activists, though many of them might fiercely deny the nature of those sentiments, perhaps even to themselves. But these political zealots may mistakenly convince themselves that the general public shares their particular ideological focus. Instead, I see very little evidence that the immigration issue is of overriding importance to “normies,” except in particular situations when it directly affects their lives in a negative way.

As an example, white voters in heavily immigrant California had supported Trump in 2016 by 20-25 points less than whites in the rest of the country, with the striking disconnect between his anti-immigrant rhetoric and their own personal experiences probably being a major factor. By sharp contrast, immigration was an especially powerful issue for Trump in a state like West Virginia, which has almost no Hispanics or immigrants of any kind, and whose voters therefore drew their entire understanding of the issue from FoxNews and Breitbart rather than from real life. But political issues that are substantially a creation of media propaganda inherently have less staying power than those with organic roots.
...
So this is the dilemma faced by Alt-Right leaders and similar “nationalist” right-wingers, including many of the individuals around Trump. They have spent the last few years focusing on a largely synthetic issue that has very little connection to the actual reality that most ordinary Americans see in their day-to-day lives. And as a result, they may have destroyed themselves politically.

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2020, 11:14:18 pm »
Can we win Arizona this time?


90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2020, 11:27:58 pm »
Demographics of BLM support:



But again, all the above is insignificant when compared to:



Want BLM to succeed? The solution is simple.

In other news, our enemies are now resorting to complaining about Henry Ford:

https://barenakedislam.com/2020/08/02/dearborn-michigan-aka-little-baghdad/

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Dearborn, which is often referred to as “Dearbornistan” because of its large Arab Muslim population (more than 40%), is the largest city of its kind in America. And you can thank Henry Ford for that. His virulent hated for Jews is why he brought in tens of thousands of Muslims to work at his automobile manufacturing plants in Dearborn.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 11:33:27 pm by 90sRetroFan »

90sRetroFan

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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2020, 11:19:16 pm »








Have we Blueshifted enough to defeat Trump? We will find out in a few months.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 11:21:31 pm by 90sRetroFan »