Author Topic: Demographic Blueshift  (Read 4198 times)


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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:26:01 am »

Can it happen so soon?

In what giddy Democrats are calling “the Texodus,” four Republican members of Congress announced, in short order, that they won’t be running for reelection in 2020; three of their seats, all in the suburbs, will likely go Democratic, adding to the two they took from Republicans in 2018. “We could see other representatives step away too,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Why would you go into a knockdown, drag-out fight when you’re either going to lose next time, or soon afterward?”
And then there was President Trump and the terrorism in El Paso. By 2022, Latino Texans are projected to outnumber whites, and the rising majority won’t soon forget the mass murder by a gunman, apparently inspired by Trump’s rhetoric, who took advantage of the state’s insanely lax gun laws. Nor will it forget the way the president put a target on the city’s back, falsely claiming in this year’s State of the Union that El Paso was “one of our nation’s most dangerous cities” before the border barriers went up, then amplifying the message in a rally there a few weeks later. “Murders, murders, murders!” Trump cried out as he talked about immigrants, while his fans chanted, “Build the wall!”
Cal Jillson, a venerable political scientist at Southern Methodist University, is among those who think this president has accelerated the Democratic comeback in Texas. “My sense pre-Trump was that there were demographic dynamics that were going to bring two-party competition at some point,” he said. “I thought it would take another 15 to 20 years. But Trump has brought all that forward. It’s happening much more quickly.”
nobody in Texas, aside from a few blinkered Republicans, believes that Democrats won’t continue to loosen the Republican stranglehold in 2020. At least half a dozen Republican seats in Congress will be ripe for the taking, and Democrats have a realistic chance of capturing the nine Republican seats in the state House they need to gain a majority—just in time for the next round of redistricting in 2021. If they regain a toehold of power in Austin, and can prevent Republicans from having total control over gerrymandering, Democrats could turn Texas blue in a hurry; if not, it’ll probably be a more gradual process over the next decade, with strict voter ID and other forms of suppression still intact, and districts artificially tilted in Republicans’ favor.


Trump's behaviour might actually be helping us:

When Amanda Berg heard reports that President Donald Trump mocked the accents of the leaders of South Korea and Japan at a recent fundraiser, it brought back painful memories from her childhood.

Berg, a Korean American who grew up in Fort Collins, Colorado, recalled kids doing the "stereotypical pulling at the eyes and the mocking accent." It made her feel like she was a foreigner in her own community.

Berg, a registered Democrat, is among a growing and crucial bloc of Asian American voters leaning further to the left in the age of Trump, and his stunt, reported by the New York Post, angered her and many others.
The Asian American voting-age population has more than doubled in the past two decades, leaping from 4.3 million in 1998 to 11.1 million in 2018 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A majority of those new voters lean Democratic.

By 2016, some Asian ethnic groups that had leaned Republican shifted into the Democratic camp, said Natalie Masuoka, an associate professor of political science and Asian American studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. A larger share of Asian American Republicans voted for John McCain in 2008 than for Trump in 2016.

A Pew Research Center survey said 53% of Asian American registered voters in 1998 identified with the Democratic Party. That figure rose to 65% in 2017.
"He's willing to use Asian stereotypes, Asian accents in his public speeches," Masuoka said. "In that way ... the way Americans are talking about race is now shifting possibly back to what historically was effective before the civil rights revolution" — explicit and sometimes offensive talk about race.

The New York Post reported that Trump imitated South Korea President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, both close U.S. allies, at a fundraiser in the Hamptons this month. Trump used a fake accent to boast about Moon relenting in negotiations over the costs of U.S. military aid to South Korea and when rehashing talks with Abe had about trade tariffs, according to the newspaper.

Trump has imitated Asian people before. At an August 2015 campaign rally in Iowa, he talked about his ability to deal with Asian negotiators and used broken English, saying, "When these people walk into the room ... they say 'We want deal!'"



Additional information:


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I want to see these hats become more common than MAGA hats before the 2020 election season begins. Please share widely!


Texas also continues to look more and more like a swing state:


Distribution matters:

Liberals in America have a density problem. Across the country, Democrats dominate in cities, racking up excessive margins in urban cores while narrowly losing in suburban districts and sparser states. Because of their uneven distribution of votes, the party consistently loses federal elections despite winning the popular vote.

The most famous case was in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost the presidential election despite her 2.4-million-vote margin. Clinton carried Manhattan and Brooklyn by approximately 1 million ballots—more than Donald Trump’s margins of victory in the states of Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania combined.
Democrats can blame the Electoral College for these losses—as they should. But according to the Stanford political scientist Jonathan Rodden’s new book, Why Cities Lose, the problem isn’t just the districting. It’s the density. All over the world, liberal, college-educated voters pack into cities, where they dilute their own voting power through excessive concentration. “Underrepresentation of the urban left in national legislatures and governments has been a basic feature of all industrialized countries that use winner-take-all elections,” he writes.

So just imagine what would happen to the American political picture if more Democrats moved out of their excessively liberal enclaves to redistribute themselves more evenly across the vast expanse of Red America?
Two weeks ago, I published an article on what I called the urban exodus. More specifically, it is a blue urban exodus, as left-leaning metros in blue states are losing population. The New York City metro area is shrinking by 277 people every day. Other areas bleeding thousands of net movers each year include Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, Chicago, Boston, and Baltimore—all in states that routinely vote for Democrats by wide margins.

These movers are U-Hauling to ruddier states in the South and West. The five fastest-growing metros of the past few years—Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, and Orlando, Florida—are in states won by Trump. The other metro areas with a population of at least 1 million that grew by at least 1.5 percent last year were Las Vegas; Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; Charlotte, North Carolina; San Antonio; Tampa, Florida; and Nashville, Tennessee. All of those metros are in red or purple states.
This drip-drip-drip of young residents trickling down into red-state suburbs is helping to turn southern metros into Democratic strongholds. (Of course, migration isn’t the only factor pushing these metros leftward, but more on that later.) In Texas, Democrats’ advantage in the five counties representing Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin (the “Texas Five” in the graph below) grew from 130,000 in the 2012 presidential election to nearly 800,000 in the 2018 Senate election.



Texas is still a red state, but at this point, it’s light red rather than deep red. The fact that Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by a mere 2% in the 2018 midterms was a troubling sign for the Texas GOP, and in a report for Axios, journalist Alexi McCammond notes that Lone Star Republicans are troubled by the departure of six members of the U.S. House of Representatives who won’t be seeking reelection in Texas in 2020.

“The 2018 midterms spooked Texas Republicans after they lost two congressional seats, saw closer-than-expected margins in a number of other races, and watched Beto O’Rourke surf a blue wave built in part on the state’s shifting demographics,” McCammond notes. And now, according to McCammond, “the six-pack of GOP retirements in one cycle is hard to ignore.”

One of those departures is Rep. Will Hurd, the only African-American Republican in the House of Representatives. McCammond quotes a dire warning from Hurd about the GOP: “The base is shrinking. Period. End of story.”

Until Democrats start winning more statewide races in Texas, it will be premature to describe Texas as a swing state. Republicans still have the advantage in Texas’ statewide races, but as O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign shows, that advantage is shrinking. And in U.S. House races, Democrats can perform quite well in parts of Texas — which is why, as McCammond reports, the GOP is aggressively trying to register more Republican voters in the Lone Star State.

A GOP strategist in Texas, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Axios, “We need a new Republican Party because the one we have is getting our asses kicked in House races.”

In the 2000s, many Democratic strategists viewed Texas as a lost cause for their party when it came to statewide races. But times have changed. And the 2018 midterms made it clear that President Donald Trump is not universally loved in that state.
McCammond concludes the Axios article by noting how increasingly bullish Democratic strategists are on their prospects in Texas. “It’s truly a sign of the times that Democrats think Texas in 2020 could mimic California in 2018 — where the party picked up seven GOP seats and helped Dems win back the House, ” McCammond reports.

New site:



The percentage of Hispanics eligible to vote in the upcoming 2020 presidential election has surged nearly 20% since 2016 when Hillary Clinton took 66% of the Latino vote.
In an analysis of the federal data, the Pew Research Center said that there are a “record” 32 million Latinos eligible to vote in 2020. That is an increase from 27.3 million in 2016.

“The 2020 election will mark the first time that Hispanics will be the largest racial and ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters,” said Pew’s FactTank.

The growth in Hispanic voters comes as a result of the surge in the Latino population.

It was about 60 million in 2018, up from 47.8 million in 2008. Hispanics make up 18% of the U.S. population, up from 5% in 1970, said Pew.

The group has been divided over President Trump and his efforts to end illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border. Overall, Hispanics do not support the president.

In 2016, he won about one-third of the Hispanic vote, but recent surveys show that dropping to one-fifth as the 2020 election nears.



A preview of our enemies' most likely countermeasure as Demographic Blueshift proceeds:

Illinois is one of the safest Democrat states in presidential elections. Hillary Clinton crushed Donald Trump in 2016, 55.4 percent to 39.4. But Clinton’s margin of victory came from Cook County, where she beat Trump by nearly 1.1 million votes. [2016 Illinois Presidential Election Results, Politico, December 12, 2016] There, Clinton shellacked Trump by more than 50 points, 74.4-21.4.

Outside Cook County though, Clinton pulled just 1.45 million votes—more than 200,000 fewer than Trump’s nearly 1.7 million.

Consider what those figures would mean for Trump if Illinois had split before the 2020 presidential election.

General consensus is, a Trump win next year requires one of these three states that he won in 2016 by using the Sailer Strategy and mobilizing working class whites: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

Although conventional wisdom might say Ohio, Florida and Arizona are swing states, they are probably safe. Trump won Ohio by 8.13 percentage points; it’s reddening. In 2018, a down-year for Republicans, former Florida Governor Rick Scott unseated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in last year’s Senate election. Meanwhile, former Rep. Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida over race-baiting Democrat Andrew Gillum. And the last Democrat to win Arizona in a presidential election without a serious Third Party challenger was Harry Truman in 1948.

If Trump holds Nebraska’s and Maine’s second congressional districts, he has 260 electoral votes. Now, add “New Illinois” to the mix. Trump would need only one of the big four—”New Illinois,” Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania—for an easy victory and re-election. In 2016, his margin of victory in an Illinois sans Cook County would have been far better than it was in any of the three “Blue Wall” states he flipped.

This is nothing but gerrymandering on an enlarged scale!

If the Electoral College were abolished, none of this would matter, of course (which is why this should be done ASAP). But so long as the Electoral College is still around, we must make sure that such initiatives to re-draw state boundaries in ways designed to help Red candidates fail to get off the ground.


If we manage to flip Texas, however, then rightists will start calling for abolishing the Electoral College.

Here is a leftist really thinking outside the box:


We know we are succeeding when we are annoying Coulter:

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« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 12:30:12 am by 90sRetroFan »