Author Topic: Demographic Blueshift  (Read 4198 times)


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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:49:51 am »

Another way Demographic Blueshift works:

A new analysis finds that immigration will dramatically reshape the Electoral College map in favor of the Democratic Party after completion of the 2020 census.

Rising immigrant populations around the United States will result in several solidly Democratic states gaining more seats in the House of Representatives at the expense of solidly Republican states, the study by the Center for Immigration Studies finds. The shift ultimately will give the Democratic Party more influence in the Electoral College, CIS says.
Of the 26 seats predicted to shift, 24 are expected to be taken away from states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Ohio is expected to lose three seats; Pennsylvania and Michigan likely will lose two; and 18 states likely will lose one seat: Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, according to the study.

California, already a behemoth of the Electoral College, is predicted to gain 11 seats after the 2020 census is completed. New York likely will gain four more seats. New Jersey likely will come out with two more seats, and Massachusetts and Illinois likely will each gain one more seat.

The only traditionally red state to see gains is Texas, which is expected to notch four more House seats. Florida, which is considered a swing state but trends toward the GOP, will earn three more seats, under the CIS analysis. Rhode Island and Minnesota are expected to lose one congressional district each.

And once we flip Texas too (plus Florida?), then we are all set.


“President Trump’s 2020 election strategy relies largely on the white, working-class base that he excited in 2016. But he faces a demographic challenge: The electorate has changed since he was last on the ballot in ways likely to benefit Democrats,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Working-class, white voters are projected to decline by 2.3 percentage points nationally as a share of eligible voters, compared with the last election, because they are older and therefore dying at a faster rate than are Democratic groups. As those voters pass on, they are most likely to be replaced by those from minority groups or young, white voters with college degrees—groups that lean Democratic.”

“That means Mr. Trump will have to coax more votes from a shrinking base—or else find more votes in other parts of the electorate.”

Of course I am emphatically not saying we have the 2020 election in the bag, especially with Red countermeasures in play.

But if Trump does lose, hopefully the next Red candidate will return to the pre-Trump approach of trying to appeal more broadly, which might help move the entire political discussion slightly closer back to sanity.


Some nice pictures:

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We are too concentrated in small areas!

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Even within Blue states, many counties are Red. We should encourage intra-state migration from Blue counties into Red counties.


Some rightists are more pessimistic than we are optimistic about our strategy:

The GOP is Finished
Demographics will determine everything.

Trump carried Georgia by only 3% in 2016; Hillary received 47%. Running for governor, Stacey Abrams – who is far more radical and openly White-hating than Clinton or Sanders – got 48.5% two years later, thereby cutting Trump’s margin in half.

Trump won’t carry Georgia in 2020 and neither will any other potential GOP nominee.

Trump carried Florida by a whisker. Florida enfranchised 1.4 million felons by referendum in the last election. Hundreds of thousands of these people will be voting Democrat by a margin of 9 to 1.

3,000 Puerto Ricans per day swarmed into Florida for many months in the wake of the 2017 hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. Thanks to our first “globalist” president, William McKinley, they are all “U.S. citizens” and they will be voting in Florida in 2020. The hundreds of thousands of felons plus several hundred thousand Puerto Ricans plus other immigrants plus newly matured non-Whites equals a Democrat landslide victory in Florida.

The GOP will never carry Florida again – not merely for the presidency but for any state-wide race. Florida is the new California.

Beto O’Rourke, running as an avowed “progressive,” i.e., an open borders White-hating socialist, got 48.5% of the vote in Texas in 2018. In 2020 several hundred thousand more non-Whites will be voting in Texas and scores of thousands of old Whites who voted for Trump will be dead.

The GOP can write off Texas.

Trump carried several states by only a few thousand votes. Four more years of explosive non-White growth and White die-off will have extinguished any chance of the Republican Party carrying those states.

Georgia + Florida + Texas + the razor-thin victory states of 2016 = an inevitable victory for the Democrats in 2020.

And for every year thereafter.
It’s over.

Again, I do not encourage assuming we already have it in the bag. We can still lose 2020 if turnout is insufficient.


Why Texans Don’t Want Any More Californians

Migrants from the Golden State could change the character of their new homes.

In 2016, President Donald Trump swept the Republican primary with a simple message: Build a wall to keep out the immigrants. Today, a new anti-migration theme is sweeping the country: Build a wall to keep out the Californians.

But is the California Exodus real?

From one perspective, the answer is very clearly yes. In 2012, California gained 113,000 people on net through domestic and international migration. Last year, California lost 40,000 people on net to migration, according to its own demographers. The state still grew, thanks to births, but at the lowest rate on record. Now the U.S. state most synonymous with all varieties of growth—vegetal, technological, and human—is at the precipice of its first-ever population decline.

Thank God the population is declining in California, I cannot even recognize the city I grew up in anymore.... lol!

But now the state is at an inflection point, between its history as a ruby-red conservative stronghold and its future as a more mixed state with blue metros and red rural areas. In this context, the next SoCal family that U-Hauls into North Texas isn’t just some nice couple with different taste in barbecue; instead, they’re potentially the demographic straw that breaks the GOP’s back.



Exclusive: Ahead of 2020 election, a 'Blue Wave' is rising in the cities, polling analysis shows

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As Republican President Donald Trump seeks a second term in November, Americans’ interest in voting is growing faster in large cities dominated by Democrats than in conservative rural areas, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos national opinion polls.



(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump is on the defensive in Arizona, where he’s set to rally voters on Wednesday as an influx of new residents challenge the president’s hold on the Republican-dominated state.

Arizona’s expanding state economy and low unemployment should help Trump in a state he won by more than 3 percentage points in 2016, but there are significant warning signs for the president.
Arizona has been among the fastest growing states, threatening the GOP’s dominance. As of July 1, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated there were 7,278,717 residents, up 4.8% from July 2016.

The number of minorities, especially Hispanics, has been increasing and some estimates suggest that minorities will be in the majority by 2030. Minority voters are more likely to support Democrats.


Jason Johnson on Roseanne Barr (Jew) being fired from ABC: A "Blue Wave" is coming:

This is what we have been saying all along! As demographics shift, even Jew owned networks have to superficially shift in a leftist direction in order to cater to their audience, out of fear of losing their market share!