Author Topic: Demographic Blueshift  (Read 4198 times)


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Re: Demographic Blueshift
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:58:09 am »

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho last year was the nation's fastest-growing state, with close to 37,000 new residents boosting its population to nearly 1.8 million.

In the past decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the deeply conservative state has seen a population jump of more than 200,000. Studies indicate many have come from liberal-leaning California, Oregon and Washington.

But are those new residents bringing blue-state politics? Or are they Republicans fleeing the coast for conservative Idaho?
“We've definitely seen some areas like Boise becoming bluer in the last few years,” she said. “More conservative voters are moving into Canyon County and northern Idaho.”

Yet Democrats see the possibility of a bluish tinge appearing in Idaho following its 2.1% population increase last year. The House, for example, went from 11 to 14 Democrats in the 2018 election. Democrats flipped four urban district seats, but lost an urban district in northern Idaho after the incumbent Democrat ran for governor.

Voter-driven ballot initiatives have also become a major focus in the state. After years of inaction by Republican lawmakers, Idaho residents in 2018 with 62% approved an initiative expanding Medicaid, a move opposed by conservative lawmakers.

In response, Republicans in the House and Senate last year tried to make the initiative process nearly impossible, so they could head off future left-leaning measures such as raising the minimum wage and legalizing marijuana. But Republican Gov. Brad Little vetoed the legislation amid concerns a federal court could rule such restrictions unconstitutional and dictate the state's initiative process.

Overall, though, Republicans hold all five statewide elected offices, including governor, and hold super-majorities in both the Idaho House and Senate. Both of Idaho's U.S. House seats and both U.S. Senate seats are also occupied by Republicans.

Democratic House Minority Leader Ilana Rubel of Boise said she's not sure which way the "in-migration is tilting," but she thinks it will be a wash.


Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis — conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.

“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels — another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be higher in red areas.
Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus could also ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where GOP leaders have been pulling back on aggressive defenses. The study looked at total anticipated deaths on a statewide basis, which accounted for spiraling projections of the virus in densely populated urban areas that are home to more Democrats.

Still, there are caveats beyond the death figures used: Researchers used national fatality rates because deaths by state were scant when they started. They similarly applied national percentages of voters by age, not state-by-state figures. But Johnson noted that could actually understate effects in places like Florida, where the GOP relies more heavily on older voters.


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Michelle Obama gets it:

she talks about how painful it is to her that black voters didn’t turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton, calling the decision not to vote more painful to her than those who voted for Trump.

“It takes some energy to go high, and we were exhausted from it. Because when you are the first black anything…” she said, referencing anecdotes from her Becoming book. “So the day I left the White House and I write about how painful it was to sit on that [inauguration] stage. A lot of our folks didn’t vote. It was almost like a slap in the face.”

“I understand the people who voted for Trump,” she continued. “The people who didn’t vote at all, the young people, the women, that’s when you think, man, people think this is a game. It wasn’t just in this election. Every midterm. Every time Barack didn’t get the Congress he needed, that was because our folks didn’t show up. After all that work, they just couldn’t be bothered to vote at all. That’s my trauma.”

Demographic Blueshift without turnout is meaningless.


Our enemies' despair is our best encouragement:

A GOP poll has Trump leading Joe Biden by just one point in a formerly solid red state [Internal GOP poll points to troubling signs for Georgia Republicans, by Greg Bluestein, The Atlanta-Journal Constitution, May 1, 2020]. But the Stupid Party seems wedded to the crazy idea that inside every immigrant is a Republican waiting to get out.

“The demographic moves against us,” Perdue told supporters in a leaked off-the-record phone call late last week [GOP senator gives activists grim 2020 assessment amid fears over holding Senate, by Alex Rogers and Manu Raju, CNN, April 29, 2020].
When Perdue won in 2014 by 8 points, 74 percent of whites voted for him. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp won the same proportion of whites in 2018, yet only beat Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams by a little more than 1 point.

That’s because the electorate went from 64 percent white to 60 percent in just four years, and the number of white registered voters has dropped from 62 percent in 2016 to 59 today.

Hispanic and Asian immigrants, the only two groups growing in registered voters, drove the shift in such places as Gwinnett County, once a GOP fortress [Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020 elections, by Mark Niesse, The Atlanta-Journal Constitution, February 11, 2020].

Recent census data show that the county’s white population has declined 3.4 percentage points since 2010, while the nonwhite population jumped more than 7 percentage points [Gwinnett’s nonwhite populations continue to grow, Census says, by Amanda C. Coyne, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 21, 2019].

The county is now just 39 percent white, basically thanks to immigration: 25 percent of its residents are foreign-born. In 1980, when the county was 96 percent white, less than 2 percent were foreign born [Duluth’s ‘Demographic Destiny Train’, by Adina Solomon, Curbed, November 13, 2019].

Mitt Romney won Gwinnett by almost 10 points in 2012. But just four years later, the walls came tumbling down. Hillary Clinton won Gwinnett, as did Stacey Abrams in 2018—and not by a thin margin. She crushed Kemp by 14 points there in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats eagerly champion the demographic change. Once immigration drives enough whites from the state and the bitter-enders are outnumbered, it’s over for the Party of Trump.

“In every way, that benefits the Democratic Party,” said Scott Hogan, the Democratic Party’s executive director. “Georgia is in play. The state is going to go blue. It’s just a matter of when” [Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020 elections, by Mark Niesse, February 11, 2020].

Still, sooner is better than later.


Another reason we need as much Demographic Blueshift as possible as quickly as possible:

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We can do it (provided we get turnout)!

Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just predicted that the national GOP is headed for the “waste bin of history” because our whole country is becoming like his Golden State. Now come new census estimates that may prove him a prophet: Texas, a must-win state for Republicans in presidential elections, is experiencing demographic change that will eventually turn it left.

Non-Hispanic whites are currently still a plurality in Texas. But this will soon change owing to, among other demographic phenomena, the state having gained nine new Hispanics for every one new non-Hispanic white in 2018. As the Texas Tribune reports:

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.

The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year. Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010. The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time period.

Asian-descent Texans’ population has actually increased the most percentagewise — 49 percent since 2010. Other major groups’ percentage increases since that year are Hispanics, 20; blacks, 19; and whites, 4.

This is significant not just because it perhaps means a more interesting panoply of restaurants, but because racial/ethnic identification strongly correlates with voting patterns. While Republicans derive approximately 90 percent of their votes from non-Hispanic whites — a group whose population share is shrinking nationwide — the “minority” groups in question cast ballots for Democrats by about 70 to 90 percent margins.

This demographic change is particularly impactful in regard to Texas because it is a GOP must-win in presidential contests. Consider: The Democrats already have as sure wins three of the five states offering the most electoral votes: California, 55; New York, 29; and Illinois, 20. Add to that 104 total other sure-win states, and the Democrats have well more than half the number necessary, which is 270, to win presidential elections.

Moreover, add a decent percentage of Democrat-leaning states, and you’ll know why it has recently been said that the Republicans have “a narrow path to the White House.” Now, remove Texas from the GOP column, and, well, the Grand Old Party will be the Grand Dead Party.

I discuss this more in-depth in my 2012 piece “Does the GOP’s Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?” But here’s the simplest way to relate the truth in question: Without Texas, Donald Trump in 2016 and G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 would have lost. Another way of putting it is: The Republicans wouldn’t have won a presidential election in 30 years — not since 1988.

And they won’t win one ever again if Texas is flipped.
(Note here: For whatever it’s worth, some polls have shown Joe Biden leading President Trump in Texas.)


The numbers are in.

The Census Bureau has released its latest population estimates, which include data from 2019. And on the whole, it shows an aging white America and an increasingly diverse United States.

Here are some general insights:

Our nation is getting bigger: The total population hovered around 329 million in 2019, up from around 308 million in 2010.

Baby boomers are no longer babies: The 65-and-older population swelled by nearly 35% between 2010 and 2019, driven by the aging of baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. In part due to this, the median age of Americans rose from 37.2 years to 38.4 years. (The median age for non-Hispanic whites, in 2019, was 43.7 years, compared to 29.8 for Hispanics, 35 for Asians, and 32.3 for Black Americans.)

The U.S. is becoming more racially diverse: The U.S. population was about 60% non-Hispanic white in 2019, a record low for the country, and experts predict non-Hispanic whites will be a minority in 25 years. Meanwhile, Hispanic and Asian populations grew by 20% and 30%, respectively, from 2010 to 2019, and the Black population grew by 12%. While the white population grew by 4.3% compared to 2010, the number of non-Hispanic whites fell by more than half a million people from 2016 to 2019.

The face of America is changing fast: In 2019, for the first time ever, nonwhites and Hispanics were the majority for people under the age of 16, signaling a demographic shift that experts expect will continue over the coming decades.

25 years is too long. With a better immigration policy we can do it in a small fraction of this time.


We forgot about this!

Advocates of statehood say it's a long-overdue change for a city that lacks any voting representation in Congress.

NAACP President Derrick Johnson told USA TODAY in a phone interview it was an issue of "fairness" for the city's population.

"This has been a question that's been pushed for over 50 years," he said, even when the district was a majority-Black city. "This goes beyond just race. This goes to the fundamental issue of fair representation for all citizens of the United States."

Census Bureau data shows that 46.4% of the district's population is African American, 11.3% is Hispanic or Latino and 4.4% is Asian, and the district's population is larger than Wyoming and Vermont.

In a Friday press conference, Pelosi touted Friday’s vote as a move “long overdue” that would offer “justice” to the people living in D.C., allowing them equality to Americans across the country.

“The fact is, people in the District of Columbia pay taxes, fight our wars, risk their lives for our democracy. And yet, in this state, in this place, they have no vote in the House or the Senate, about whether we go to war and how those taxes are exacted,” Pelosi said.

In a speech on the House floor, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said the citizens in the nation's capital, which he noted was "historically one of our largest African American cities" had been "disenfranchised and shortchanged for too long."

President Barack Obama said in 2014 that he supported D.C. statehood, putting the district's "Taxation Without Representation" license plates on the presidential limousine.

There is support for statehood outside the district, too. National Democratic leaders voiced their support for D.C. statehood in a Twitter thread Thursday, with former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Kamala Harris, and others tweeting "DC should be a state. Pass it on."
"D.C. will never be a state," Trump told the New York Post. "You mean District of Columbia, a state? Why? So we can have two more Democratic — Democrat senators and five more congressmen? No thank you. That’ll never happen."

The Senate currently is split 53-47, the majority held by Republicans, and adding two D.C. senators would cut into the GOP advantage in the chamber.