https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSS25jEr6go20:49-21:27 echoes what I am worried about what this might lead to. It should be noted that China was not critical of the Abraham Accords (that involved UAE and Bahrain recognizing Israel):
https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-and-abraham-accords-peace-agreementA day after the agreement between Israel and the UAE was first made public, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated that Beijing was “pleased” to see the two countries taking steps to reduce tensions in the Middle East.[2]
thus are unlikely to try to stop any prospective Saudi recognition of Israel either. Yet if Saudi recognition of Israel goes ahead, then Iran's newly established relations with Saudi will mean Iran will be under pressure to recognize Israel also.
Additionally, I predict Israel will now step up support for the pro-democracy protestors in Iran to overthrow the current regime, which would then reset Iran's foreign relations. Thus even if the current regime sticks to its principle of not recognizing Israel, whatever manages to displace the current regime in Iran would surely recognize Israel at once.
The fundamental problem is that China's aim was never to unite Iran and Saudi against Israel, but to end conflict in the region generally (ie. including ending conflicts involving Israel) in the interests of increased prosperity for all (ie. including increased prosperity for Israel). If China had instead criticized the Abraham Accords from the beginning like we did, and then pitched this Iran-Saudi deal as a
countermeasure to the Abraham Accords,
that would have been a good move. But this is not what we have in reality. Thus I discourage over-optimism about this ideal.
Until China acquires a worldview based on moral dualism, it will continue to be incapable of formulating plans that Israel cannot rewire to its own ultimate advantage.
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