I keep agreeing with our enemies:
https://gatesofvienna.net/2022/04/home-before-christmas/Putin isn’t going anywhere. Least of all back to Moscow with his tail between his legs. He’s going to stay exactly where he is. Unless he is militarily defeated, which is unlikely. After all, he has the world’s biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons at hand. Right now NATO and Putin are playing a game of chicken. The problem is Putin has no eyelids to blink with. He’ll win.
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Part of the policy is simply out-waiting the other. Sooner or later they will give in. They all do. For example, Crimea. Was the plebiscite real or not? It doesn’t matter. Given the outcome, of course it was rigged. 96.77% is not realistic. So what happened? Nothing. It’s still Russian.
Putin simply out-waited sanctions. He got what he wanted, and took it from there.
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Public discontent is something Putin does not have to worry about for a long time to come. Did the Russians ever protest against losses in a war? Rarely. The losses in the Winter War were much greater. Not a peep. Losing the Crimean War didn’t create big protests. The defeat in the Japanese-Russo War did, but they could be squelched.
So at home Putin has nothing to fear. All he has to do now is outwait his foreign opponents. He has very little to lose. What are the options?
1. Complete withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territories, plus war reparations, EU and NATO membership.
Yeah, if pigs have wings they can fly. Not going to happen. He much rather let the nukes fly high. That would be a humiliation far beyond what Russians (never mind Putin) would tolerate. Besides, he doesn’t have the money for war reparations.
2. Partial withdrawal from some occupied Ukrainian territories, with some war reparations, EU membership and perpetual neutrality.
Withdraw from areas he can’t conquer at the moment. Keep everything he has, plus the entire Luhansk and Donbas regions. If Ukraine is willing to unite with Russia, limited war reparations are negotiable. Otherwise, though, good luck. Ask the EU to rebuild Ukraine. We’re not wasting good rubles on your rubble.
That’s a limited victory. Not for Ukraine; for Putin. He gets to keep everything he wanted plus more, and most of his goals are achieved. All he has to do now is wait for the next opportunity.
3. Withdrawal to pre-21 February positions, without war reparations, no EU or NATO membership.
Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas remain occupied by Russia, but will still be considered Ukrainian territories (by NATO, that is). Russia doesn’t have to pay any kind of war reparations, as they are — or will be soon — flat broke. Ukraine becomes a neutral country, without ties to the EU or NATO.
That’s also a limited victory for Putin. Zelensky staying in power is irrelevant for Putin. He’ll be gone soon enough. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO (goal no. 1) and the EU (goal no. 2) is far more important. I0t would be painful to give up the newly occupied territories, but that is something for the army to cry over. After they’ve dried their tears, they can get busy rebuilding the army into something that works. The few generals that survive the coming cleanup, that is. All he has to do now is wait for the next opportunity.
Apart from the first option, it’s a win-win for Putin. He’ll get everything he wants, solidify his claim on Crimea (simply by holding on) and extend Russia with Luhansk and Donbas. He’ll keep Ukraine outside NATO and probably the EU. Which means he can do whatever he wants, in the future. We also know that Russian promises are worth their weight in kopeks.
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A compromise is a win for Putin, no matter what the compromise might be.
This is why I keep saying the only way to turn this into a loss for Putin is if Russia ends this war with less territory than when it started. This requires counter-invasion into currently Russian territory. We now have another reason to do so:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urbcTth9H1QWe have every justification to claim Russian territory in compensation. But do we have the will to do so?