True Left

“Iran is probably one of the most sanctioned governments in the entire world.”

Donald Trump’s latest economic threat is unlikely to break the stalemate with Iran, says US broadcaster LaDonna Harvey.

Quote from: 90sRetroFan on November 11, 2020, 10:04:05 pm

"Reminder: This would not have happened had Trump not removed the U.S. from the JCPOA deal."

Wait, so are you saying that Trump did something good (albeit unintentionally)?

Iran did exactly what they said they would do if the U.S. pulled out of the agreement. I stated that because I know western powers will try and claim Iran is not honoring the agreement and 'look how bad Iran is', when in actuality Iran was in compliance until Trump\The U.S. broke the deal and most rightists will believe them.

On Saturday's episode of The Grand Standoff: Iran and the World, American University historian Professor Peter Kuznick warned that the United States faces a total strategic failure in its aggression against Iran, leaving Washington desperate as both economic sanctions and military coercion fail to yield results.

Pointing to growing reports and internal discussions surrounding the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons against Iran, Kuznick cautioned that such a move would be criminally reckless and carry unpredictable global consequences.

(Gemini)

Yes, tankers have been conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers just outside the Strait of Hormuz—primarily near Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates and Sohar in Oman.

The Shuttle Trade: To minimize risk and avoid high insurance and geopolitical hazards inside the Persian Gulf, some "shuttle" tankers make quick runs through the Strait of Hormuz (frequently with their transponders turned off).

Offloading Cargo: Once outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman, these vessels offload their crude oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG) onto larger waiting carriers.

Global Distribution: The secondary vessels then transport the cargo onward to international markets, disguising the origin of the fuel.

Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has targeted this exact workaround. The PGSA blacklisted dozens of tankers accused of violating its transit rules and explicitly warned that any vessel participating in ship-to-ship transfers with these blacklisted ships will face fines, detention, or cargo seizure on future voyages.

China is pushing back against the latest US sanctions on Iran, warning Washington not to interfere with its trade with Tehran. Imtiaz Gul, from the Centre for Research and Security Studies weighs in.

The "escalation trap" is a strategic theory by University of Chicago professor Robert Pape describing how limited military strikes against a formidable adversary like Iran backfire and force a spiral into full-scale conflict.

Core Concepts of the Escalation Trap:

Tactical Success vs. Strategic Failure: Initial air and naval strikes successfully hit targets or eliminate leaders, creating an illusion of progress. However, they fail to achieve large political goals like regime change or stopping uranium enrichment.

The Hardening of the Adversary: Rather than collapsing, the targeted regime sees its resolve stiffen, domestic opposition silenced under nationalism, and its strategic position—such as control over the Strait of Hormuz—strengthened.

The Closing Trap: Because backing down looks like a visible defeat, leaders feel compelled to double down, moving from air power to riskier options like ground operations or horizontal escalation.

The Stages of the Model:

Stage One: Initial bombings or strikes that fail to break the regime, instead hardening local resolve.

Stage Two: The adversary adapts, tightens internal control, and leverages geographic advantages or key chokepoints like oil markets.

Stage Three: The trap closes, forcing a dangerous choice between accepting a major strategic defeat or launching costly ground options and wider regional conflict.

Pape outlines these dynamics in depth on his analysis platform, the The Escalation Trap Substack, warning that breaking the cycle requires diplomatic offramps before crossing deeper thresholds.

Escalation Trap tracks the trajectory of the Iran war in real time, equipping you with frameworks to recognize shifts in escalation, anticipate what comes next, and understand the strategic and economic consequences before they become conventional wisdom.

Escalation Trap | Prof Robert Pape | Substack

escalationtrap.substack.com